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Modified fast double sieve bootstraps for ADF tests

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Richard, Patrick

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Abstract

This paper studies the finite sample performance of the sieve bootstrap augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test. It is well known that this test's accuracy in terms of rejection probability under the null depends greatly on the underlying DGP. Through extensive simulations, we find that it also depends on the number of lags employed in the bootstrap DGP and in the bootstrap ADF regression. Based on this finding and using some well established theoretical results, we propose a simple modification that significantly improves the test's accuracy. We also introduce different versions of the fast double bootstrap, each modified according to the same theoretical basis. According to our simulations, these new testing procedures have lower error in rejection probability under the null while retaining good power.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

Volume (Year): 53 (2009)
Issue (Month): 12 (October)
Pages: 4490-4499
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Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:53:y:2009:i:12:p:4490-4499

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  1. Lokshin, Boris, 2006. "Monte-Carlo comparison of alternative estimators for dynamic panel data models," Research Memoranda 014, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Joon Y. Park, 2003. "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1845-1895, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Paparoditis, Efstathios & Politis, Dimitris N., 2005. "Bootstrapping Unit Root Tests for Autoregressive Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 545-553, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2006. "Improving the Reliability of Bootstrap Tests with the Fast Double Bootstrap," Working Papers 1044, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Franz C. Palm & Stephan Smeekes & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2008. "Bootstrap Unit-Root Tests: Comparison and Extensions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 371-401, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Yoosoon Chang & Joon Y. Park, 2003. "A Sieve Bootstrap For The Test Of A Unit Root," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(4), pages 379-400, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Galbraith, JohnW. & Zinde-Walsh, Victoria, 1999. "On the distributions of Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistics in processes with moving average components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 25-47, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Yoosoon Chang & Joon Park, 2002. "On The Asymptotics Of Adf Tests For Unit Roots," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 431-447. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. James G. MacKinnon, 2006. "Applications of the Fast Double Bootstrap," Working Papers 1023, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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