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Finite Sample Properties of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks when Linear Trends are Present

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Toda, Hiro Y
Abstract

This paper investigates the finite sample properties of likelihood ratio tests for 'stochastic cointegration' that have recently been proposed by S. Johansen and P. Perron and J. Y. Campbell. The author transforms the model into a canonical form and conducts a comprehensive simulation study. He finds that the test performance is very sensitive to the value of the stationary root(s) of the process and to the correlation between the innovations that drive the stationary and nonstationary components of the process. Unfortunately, the simulation results suggest that these asymptotic test procedures are not very powerful for sample sizes that are typical for economic time series. Copyright 1994 by MIT Press.

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 76 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 66-79
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:76:y:1994:i:1:p:66-79

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  10. Carsten Trenkler, 2006. "Bootstrapping Systems Cointegration Tests with a Prior Adjustment for Deterministic Terms," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-012, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  11. J. Breitung, . "A Simultaneous Equations Approach to Cointegrated Systems," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1995-46, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  15. H. L"Utkepohl & J. Breitung, . "Impulse Response Analysis of Vector Autoregressive Processes," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1996-86, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  17. H. Lütkepohl & P. Saikkonen & C. Trenkler, . "Maximum Eigenvalue Versus Trace Tests for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2000-83, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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