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A factor-augemented model of markup on mortgage loans in Poland

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  • Bystrov, Victor

Abstract

The paper describes the results of estimation of a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model that relates the markup on mortgage loans in national currency, granted to households by monetary financial institutions, and 1-month inter-bank rate that represents the cost of funds for financial institutions. The factors by which the model is augmented, summarize information that can be used by banks to forecast interest rates and evaluate macroeconomic risks. The estimation results indicate that there is a significant relation between the markup and the changes in 1-month WIBOR. This relation can be interpreted as evidence of incomplete transmission of the monetary policy shocks to mortgage rates set by monetary financial institutions. The policy shocks are partially absorbed by changes in the markup.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 49683.

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Date of creation: 09 Sep 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49683

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Keywords: factor models; interest rates; pass-through; markup;

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  1. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
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  4. Peter Winker, 1999. "Sluggish adjustment of interest rates and credit rationing: an application of unit root testing and error correction modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 267-277.
  5. Chmielewski, Tomasz, 2003. "Interest rate pass-through in the Polish banking sector and bank-specific financial disturbances," MPRA Paper 5133, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Jan 2004.
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  9. Banerjee, A. & Bystrov, V. & Mizen, P., 2012. "How do anticipated changes to short-term market rates influence banks' retail interest rates? Evidence from the four major euro area economies," Working papers 361, Banque de France.
  10. Anna Staszewska‐Bystrova, 2011. "Bootstrap prediction bands for forecast paths from vector autoregressive models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(8), pages 721-735, December.
  11. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
  12. Ralf Brueggemann & Helmut Leutkepohl, 2000. "Lag Selection in Subset VAR Models with an Application to a U.S. Monetary System," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0821, Econometric Society.
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