How do anticipated changes to short-term market rates influence banks' retail interest rates? Evidence from the four major euro area economies
AbstractIn this paper we argue that banks anticipate short-term market rates when setting interest rates on loans and deposits. In order to include anticipated rates in an empirical model, we use two methods to forecast market rates - a level, slope, curvature model and a principal components model - before including them in a model of retail rate adjustment for four retail rates in four major euro area economies. Using both aggregate data and data from individual French banks, we find a significant role for forecasts of market rates in determining retail rates; alternative specifications with futures information yield comparable results.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 361.
Length: 73 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
forecasting; factor models; interest rates; pass-through.;
Other versions of this item:
- Anindya Banerjee & Victor Bystrov & Paul Mizen, 2013. "How Do Anticipated Changes to Short‐Term Market Rates Influence Banks' Retail Interest Rates? Evidence from the Four Major Euro Area Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1375-1414, October.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-03-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2012-03-08 (Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2012-03-08 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2012-03-08 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MON-2012-03-08 (Monetary Economics)
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- Anna Staszewska-Bystrova, 2013. "Modified Scheffé’s Prediction Bands," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 233(5-6), pages 680-690, October.
- Enzo Cassino, 2012. "Modelling New Zealand mortgage interest rates?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2012/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Bystrov, Victor, 2013. "A factor-augemented model of markup on mortgage loans in Poland," MPRA Paper 49683, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Arvid Raknerud & Bjørn Helge Vatne, 2013. "The relations between bank-funding costs, retail rates, and loan volumes. Evidence form Norwegian microdata," Discussion Papers 742, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
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