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The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields

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Author Info
Sarno, Lucio
Thornton, Daniel L
Valente, Giorgio

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Abstract

This paper tests the expectations hypothesis (EH) using US monthly data for bond yields spanning the 1952-2003 sample period and ranging in maturity from 1 month to 10 years. We apply the Lagrange multiplier test developed by Bekaert and Hodrick (2001) and extend it to increase the test power: (a) by introducing economic variables as conditioning information; and (b) by using more than two bond yields in the model and testing the EH jointly on more than one pair of yields. While the conventional bivariate procedure provides mixed results, the more powerful testing procedures suggest rejection of the EH throughout the maturity spectrum examined.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5259.

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Date of creation: Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5259

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Related research
Keywords: expectations hypothesis; term structure of interest rates; vector autoregression;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: statistical tests and economic value," Working Papers 2006-061, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Suzan Hol, 2006. "Determinants of long-term interest rates in the Scandinavian countries," Discussion Papers 469, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  3. Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Revisiting the predictability of bond risk premia," Working Papers 2009-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Silva Lopes, Artur C. & Monteiro, Olga Susana, 2007. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Some Empirical Evidence for Portugal," MPRA Paper 6310, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Dec 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Bruce Mizrach & Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "Information shares in the U.S. treasury market," Working Papers 2005-070, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Working Papers 2009-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Queijo von Heideken, Virginia, 2008. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 220, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  8. Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & Benjamin M. Tabak?, 2007. "Characterizing The Brazilian Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 108, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Daniel L. Thornton, 2008. "Monetary policy: why money matters and interest rates don't," Working Papers 2008-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  10. Silva Lopes, Artur C. B. da & Monteiro, Olga Susana, 2008. "Short and long run tests of the expectations hypothesis: the Portuguese case," MPRA Paper 12001, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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