Monetary policy transmission in the CEECs : revisited results using alternative econometrics
AbstractThis paper aims at providing better supported results regarding monetary policy transmission in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). In the general frame of VAR models, our study differs from previous research in two main respects. Firstly, we provide estimations that do not rely on the hypothesis of cointegration usually exploited in the related literature, but economically meaningless over less than ten years spans and statistically very fragile. Secondly, we present another set of results, relying on real GDP monthly data that have been rebuilt using the Chow and Lin (1971) method; this allows for an alternative to the traditional industrial production data, a partial and highly unstable proxy variable for output. These original methodological insights lead to results emphasizing the general prevalence of exchange rate and domestic credit channels for monetary policy transmission across the studied countries, despite some persistent national specificity. The empirical evidence also incites to be reasonably optimistic regarding the relevancy of a close integration of these countries into euro area.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) in its series Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques with number bla05020.
Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2005
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Monetary policy transmission; VAR models; CEECs.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-04-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2005-04-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2005-04-16 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2005-04-16 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-TRA-2005-04-16 (Transition Economics)
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