Exchange Rate Risk in Central European Countries
AbstractThe authors address the issue of foreign exchange risk and its macroeconomic determinants in several Central European (CE) economies. The joint distribution of excess returns in the foreign exchange market and observable country-specific macroeconomic factors is modeled using the stochastic discount factor (SDF) approach and a multivariate GARCH-in-mean model. The authors find that real factors seem to lack significance in determining foreign exchange risk, while nominal factors (inflation and money) have a significant impact. The differences in the impact of nominal factors are related to the actual monetary policy regimes adopted in the countries examined. The authors´ findings have policy implications with respect to currency stability. The central banks in the CE countries should continue stabilization policies aimed at achieving nominal convergence with the core EU members, as nominal country-specific factors play a crucial role in explaining the variability of the risk premium.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.
Volume (Year): 60 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
foreign exchange risk; time-varying risk premium; stochastic discount factor; multivariate GARCH-in-mean;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- P59 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Other
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brandt, Michael W. & Cochrane, John H. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2006. "International risk sharing is better than you think, or exchange rates are too smooth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 671-698, May.
- Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2006. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How far, how fast?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 311-327, December.
- Peter N Smith & Michael R Wickens, .
"Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors,"
02/03, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Smith, Peter & Wickens, Michael, 2002. " Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 397-446, July.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2006.
"Meta-analysis of the business cycle correlation between the euro area and the CEECs,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 518-537, September.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Iikka Korhonen, 2006. "Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the CEECs," CESifo Working Paper Series 1693, CESifo Group Munich.
- Egert, Balazs, 2007.
"Central bank interventions, communication and interest rate policy in emerging European economies,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 387-413, June.
- Balazs Egert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0615, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
- Balazs Egert, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 1869, CESifo Group Munich.
- Égert, Balázs, 2006. "Central Bank Interventions, Communication and Interest Rate Policy in Emerging European Economies," Working Papers 134, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Kocenda, Evzen, 2005. "Beware of breaks in exchange rates: Evidence from European transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 307-324, September.
- White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
- Holub, Tomáš, 2004.
"Foreign exchange interventions under inflation targeting: the Czech Experience,"
17, Deutsche Bank Research.
- Adam Gersl & Tomás Holub, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 475-491, October.
- Tomas Holub, 2004. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Research and Policy Notes 2004/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2005. "Real and nominal stochastic convergence: Are the new EU members ready to join the Euro zone?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 387-400, June.
- Michael R. Wickens & Chiona Balfoussia, 2004.
"Macroeconomic Sources of Risk in the Term Structure,"
CEIS Research Paper
61, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
- Hiona Balfoussia & Mike Wickens, 2007. "Macroeconomic Sources of Risk in the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 205-236, 02.
- Chiona Balfoussia & Michael Wickens, 2004. "Macroeconomic Sources of Risk in the Term Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1329, CESifo Group Munich.
- Kocenda, Evzen & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2009.
"Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2164-2173, November.
- Tigran Poghosyan & Evzen Kocenda, 2007. "Macroeconomic Sources of Foreign Exchange Risk in New EU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp898, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Luca Benati, 2006. "Affine term structure models for the foreign exchange risk premium," Bank of England working papers 291, Bank of England.
- Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009.
"Money demand and disinflation in selected CEECs during the accession to the EU,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1259-1267.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2006. "Money Demand and Disinflation in Selected CEECs during the Accession to the EU," Discussion Papers in Economics 1232, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
- Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004.
"Exchange rate risk and convergence to the Euro,"
ZEI Working Papers
B 25-2004, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
- Lucjan T Orlowski, 2005.
"Monetary Convergence And Risk Premiums In The EU Candidate Countries,"
- Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2002. "Monetary convergence and risk premiums in the EU candidate countries," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
- Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2008. "Relative inflation-forecast as monetary policy target for convergence to the euro," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1061-1081.
- P N Smith & S Sorensen & M R Wickens, .
"Macroeconomic Sources of Equity Risk,"
03/13, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Horváth, Roman, 2008.
"Volatility of exchange rates in selected new EU members: Evidence from daily data,"
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 103-118, March.
- Jarko Fidrmuc & Roman Horváth, 2007. "Volatility of Exchange Rates in Selected New EU Members: Evidence from Daily Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 2107, CESifo Group Munich.
- Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Money rules for monetary convergence to the euro," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 817-837, October.
- Charles Engel, 1996.
"The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
- Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
- Iwata, Shigeru & Wu, Shu, 2006. "Macroeconomic Shocks And The Foreign Exchange Risk Premia," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(04), pages 439-466, September.
- Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "Sources of inflation and output movements in Poland and Hungary: Policy implications for accession to the economic and monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 107-131, March.
- Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2005. "Monetary convergence of the EU accession countries to the eurozone: A theoretical framework and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 203-225, January.
- David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, 02.
- Gottschalk, Jan & Moore, David, 2001. "Implementing Inflation Targeting Regimes: The Case of Poland," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, March.
- Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2008. "Fiscal convergence in the European Union," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 319-330, December.
- Vit Posta, 2012. "Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Czech Capital Market: Did the Market Experience a Structural Shock in 2008–2009?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(5), pages 450-470, November.
- Vít Pošta, 2012. "Estimation of the Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Czech Foreign Exchange Market," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2012(1), pages 3-17.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Herrmannova).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.