IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/18646.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Asset Market View of Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • A. Craig Burnside
  • Jeremy J. Graveline

Abstract

If the asset market is complete then the difference between foreign and domestic agents' log intertemporal marginal rates of substitution (IMRSs) equals the log change in the real exchange rate. This equation is frequently used to argue that changes in real exchange rates reflect differences between agents' required compensation for exposure to asset return uncertainty. We show that the relative returns on frictionlessly traded assets are only reflected in the common component of agents' IMRSs, not differences. Instead, when this equation does offer insights, frictions in the goods market are the source of economic distinction between agents.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Craig Burnside & Jeremy J. Graveline, 2012. "On the Asset Market View of Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 18646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18646
    Note: AP EFG IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18646.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gourio, François & Siemer, Michael & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2013. "International risk cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 471-484.
    2. Martin Bodenstein, 2008. "International Asset Markets and Real Exchange Rate Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 688-705, July.
    3. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864, Elsevier.
    4. Apte, Prakash & Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman, 2004. "The exchange rate and purchasing power parity: extending the theory and tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 553-571, June.
    5. Stockman, Alan C, 1980. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 673-698, August.
    6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Francesca Viani, 2012. "Traded and Nontraded Goods Prices, and International Risk Sharing: An Empirical Investigation," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 403-466.
    7. Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
    8. Narayana R. Kocherlakota & Luigi Pistaferri, 2007. "Household Heterogeneity and Real Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(519), pages 1-25, March.
    9. Peter Smith & Michael Wickens, 2002. "Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 397-446, July.
    10. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "If exchange rates are random walks, then almost everything we say about monetary policy is wrong," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Jul, pages 2-9.
    11. Brandt, Michael W. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2002. "Simulated likelihood estimation of diffusions with an application to exchange rate dynamics in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 161-210, February.
    12. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-185, March.
    13. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    15. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    17. Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "A Habit‐Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 123-146, February.
    18. Benigno, Gianluca & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2008. "Consumption and real exchange rates with incomplete markets and non-traded goods," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 926-948, October.
    19. G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), 2003. "Handbook of the Economics of Finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    20. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-854, November.
    21. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June.
    22. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    23. Christopher Telmer & Batchimeg Sambalaibat & Federico Gavazzoni, 2012. "Currency Risk and Pricing Kernel Volatility," 2012 Meeting Papers 558, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2008. "International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(2), pages 443-473.
    25. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    26. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2007. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1139-1180.
    27. Harrison, J. Michael & Pliska, Stanley R., 1981. "Martingales and stochastic integrals in the theory of continuous trading," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 215-260, August.
    28. Anderson, Bing & Hammond, Peter J. & Ramezani, Cyrus A., 2010. "Affine Models of the Joint Dynamics of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(5), pages 1341-1365, October.
    29. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
    30. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-775, August.
    31. Dybvig, Philip H. & Ross, Stephen A., 2003. "Arbitrage, state prices and portfolio theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 605-637, Elsevier.
    32. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    33. G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), 2003. "Handbook of the Economics of Finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 2.
    34. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "Investing in Foreign Currency is like Betting on your Intertemporal Marginal Rate of Substitution," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 644-655, 04-05.
    35. Bansal, Ravi, 1997. "An Exploration of the Forward Premium Puzzle in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 369-403.
    36. David K. Backus & Federico Gavazzoni & Christopher Telmer & Stanley E. Zin, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
    38. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
    39. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2013. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 1-33.
    40. Robert Jarrow & Dilip Madan, 1995. "Option Pricing Using The Term Structure Of Interest Rates To Hedge Systematic Discontinuities In Asset Returns1," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 311-336, October.
    41. Michael J. Brennan & Yihong Xia, 2006. "International Capital Markets and Foreign Exchange Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 753-795.
    42. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
    43. Brandt, Michael W. & Cochrane, John H. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2006. "International risk sharing is better than you think, or exchange rates are too smooth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 671-698, May.
    44. Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
    45. Bekaert, Geert, 1996. "The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets: A General Equilibrium Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 427-470.
    46. Bakshi, Gurdip & Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2008. "Stochastic risk premiums, stochastic skewness in currency options, and stochastic discount factors in international economies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 132-156, January.
    47. Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August.
    48. Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 1995. "The Exchange Rate in the Presence of Transaction Costs: Implications for Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1309-1319, September.
    49. Long, John Jr., 1990. "The numeraire portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 29-69, July.
    50. Riccardo Colacito & Mariano M. Croce, 2011. "Risks for the Long Run and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 153-181.
    51. David K. Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris I. Telmer, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, February.
    52. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
    53. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    54. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, August.
    55. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    56. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-180.
    57. Steven Ho & Philip Howard & Mariano Croce & Riccardo Colacito, 2013. "BKK the EZ way. An International Production Economy with Recursive Preferences," 2013 Meeting Papers 112, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    58. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aloosh, Arash, 2014. "Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability," MPRA Paper 59931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mikhail Chernov & Drew Creal, 2023. "International Yield Curves and Currency Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 209-245, February.
    3. Hassan, Ramin & Loualiche, Erik & Pecora, Alexandre R. & Ward, Colin, 2023. "International trade and the risk in bilateral exchange rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    4. Gurdip Bakshi & Xiaohui Gao & George Panayotov, 2021. "A Theory of Dissimilarity Between Stochastic Discount Factors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(7), pages 4602-4622, July.
    5. Branger, Nicole & Herold, Michael & Muck, Matthias, 2021. "International stochastic discount factors and covariance risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gourio, François & Siemer, Michael & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2013. "International risk cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 471-484.
    2. Christophe Chamley, 2006. "Complementarities in information acquisition with short-term trades," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-042, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    3. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    4. Adrien Verdelhan & Hanno Lustig, 2016. "Does Incomplete Spanning in International Financial Markets Help to Explain Exchange Rates?," 2016 Meeting Papers 1183, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2014. "Assessing International Efficiency," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 523-584, Elsevier.
    6. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    7. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2018. "An intermediation-based model of exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 743, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Mikhail Chernov & Drew Creal, 2023. "International Yield Curves and Currency Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 209-245, February.
    9. Rabitsch, Katrin, 2016. "An incomplete markets explanation of the UIP puzzle," FinMaP-Working Papers 53, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    10. David K. Backus & Federico Gavazzoni & Christopher Telmer & Stanley E. Zin, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Katrin Rabitsch, 2016. "An Incomplete Markets Explanation of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 422-446, May.
    12. Kyriacos Lambrias, 2013. "News Shocks, Real Exchange Rates and International Co-Movements," BCL working papers 83, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    13. Lorenzo Garlappi & Jack Favilukis, 2015. "The Carry Trade and UIP when Markets are Incomplete," 2015 Meeting Papers 242, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
    15. Gavazzoni, Federico & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2020. "International R&D spillovers and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 330-354.
    16. Lustig, Hanno & Roussanov, Nikolai & Verdelhan, Adrien, 2014. "Countercyclical currency risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 527-553.
    17. Munk, Claus, 2015. "Financial Asset Pricing Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198716457.
    18. Charles Engel, 2016. "Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(2), pages 436-474, February.
    19. Kyriacos Lambrias, 2020. "Real exchange rates and international co-movement: News-shocks and non-tradable goods with complete markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 154-169, January.
    20. Kollmann, Robert, 2016. "International business cycles and risk sharing with uncertainty shocks and recursive preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 115-124.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18646. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.