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An Exploration of the Forward Premium Puzzle in Currency Markets

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Author Info
Bansal, Ravi
Abstract

A standard empirical finding is that expected changes in exchange rates and interest rate differentials across countries are negatively related, implying that uncovered interest rate parity is violated in the data. This article provides new empirical evidence that suggests that violations of uncovered interest rate parity, and its economic implications, depend on the sign of the interest rate differentially. A framework related to term structure models is developed to account for the puzzling relationship between expected changes in exchange rates and interest rate differentials. Estimation results suggest that a particular term structure model can account for the puzzling empirical evidence. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies in its journal Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 10 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 369-403
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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:10:y:1997:i:2:p:369-403

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  1. Taboga, Marco & Pericoli, Marcello, 2008. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 9523, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Giorgio Santis & Bruno Gerard & Fulvio Ortu, 2000. "Generalized Numeraire Portfolios," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1027, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Charles S. Bos & Ronald J. Mahieu & Herman K. van Dijk, 2001. "Daily Exchange Rate Behaviour and Hedging of Currency Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-017/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Shu Wu, 2005. "Interest Rate Risk and the Forward Premium Anomaly in Foreign Exchange Markets," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200519, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
  5. Huisman, R. & Mahieu, R.J. & Mulder, A., 2007. "Do Exchange Rates Move in Line With Uncovered Interest Parity?," Research Paper ERS-2007-012-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hollifield, Burton & Yaron, Amir, 2001. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium: Real and Nominal Factors," Working Papers 01-1, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Konstantijn Maes, 2004. "Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Where Do We Stand?," Research series 200402, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2001. "Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Diffusions with an Application to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Incomplete Markets," NBER Technical Working Papers 0274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Joost Driessen & Bertrand Melenberg & Theo Nijman, 2000. "Testing Affine Term Structure Models in Case of Transaction Costs," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0553, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Daal, Elton, 2004. "Quadratic term structure models with jumps in incomplete currency markets," Working Papers 2004-04, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  11. Alex Lebedinsky, 2008. "Empirical Test of Affine Stochastic Discount Factor Model of Currency Pricing," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 6(15), pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
  12. Michael Brennan & Yihong Xia, 2004. "International Capital Markets and Foreign Exchange Risk," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1251, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Campbell, Rachel & Koedijk, Kees & Lothian, James R & Mahieu, Ronald J, 2007. "Irving Fisher, Expectational Errors, and the UIP Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 6294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Hodrick, Robert J & Vassalou, Maria, 2001. "Do We Need Multi-Country Models to Explain Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Bond Return Dynamics?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3056, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. William P. Osterberg, 1997. "Does intervention explain the forward discount puzzle?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 24-31. [Downloadable!]
  16. Leon, Hyginus & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5527, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Sassan Alizadeh & Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2001. "High- and Low-Frequency Exchange Rate Volatility Dynamics: Range-Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," NBER Working Papers 8162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Georg Mosburger & Paul Schneider, 2005. "Modelling International Bond Markets with Affine Term Structure Models," Finance 0509003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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