If exchange rates are random walks, then almost everything we say about monetary policy is wrong

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If exchange rates are random walks, then almost everything we say about monetary policy is wrong

Author Info

Fernando Alvarez
Andrew Atkeson
Patrick J. Kehoe

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Abstract

The key question asked by standard monetary models used for policy analysis, How do changes in short-term interest rates affect the economy? All of the standard models imply that such changes in interest rates affect the economy by altering the conditional means of the macroeconomic aggregates and have no effect on the conditional variances of these aggregates. We argue that the data on exchange rates imply nearly the opposite: the observation that exchange rates are approximately random walks implies that fluctuations in interest rates are associated with nearly one-for-one changes in conditional variances and nearly no changes in conditional means. In this sense standard monetary models capture essentially none of what is going on in the data. We thus argue that almost everything we say about monetary policy using these models is wrong.> Replaces Working Paper No. 650

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 388.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:388

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Article
- Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2007. "If Exchange Rates are Random Walks, Then Almost Everything We Say About Monetary Policy is Wrong," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 339-345, May. [Downloadable!]
- Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "If exchange rates are random walks, then almost everything we say about monetary policy is wrong," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Jul, pages 2-9. [Downloadable!]
Paper
- Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2007. "If exchange rates are random walks then almost everything we say about monetary policy is wrong," Working Papers 650, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2007-04-14 (All new papers)
NEP-CBA-2007-04-14 (Central Banking)
NEP-DGE-2007-04-14 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
NEP-IFN-2007-04-14 (International Finance)
NEP-MAC-2007-04-14 (Macroeconomics)
NEP-MON-2007-04-14 (Monetary Economics)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick Kehoe, 2007. "Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium," Working Papers CAS_RN_2007_6, Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2005. "Time-varying risk, interest rates and exchange rates in general equilibrium," Working Papers 627, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "Time-varying risk, interest rates, and exchange rates in general equilibrium," Staff Report 371, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
- Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 76(3), pages 851-878, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Brandt, Michael W. & Cochrane, John H. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2006. "International risk sharing is better than you think, or exchange rates are too smooth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 671-698, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie David Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2004. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," IMF Working Papers 04/73, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1033, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2002. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," NBER Working Papers 9393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1011, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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