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Interest Rate Convergence in the Euro-Candidate Countries: Volatility Dynamics of Sovereign Bond Yields

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  • Gabrisch, Hurbert

    (Halle Institute for Economic Research)

  • Orlowski, Lucjan

    ()
    (John F. Welch College of Business, Sacred Heart University)

Abstract

We advocate a dynamic approach to monetary convergence to a common currency that is based on the analysis of financial system stability. Accordingly, we test empirically volatility dynamics of the ten-year sovereign bond yields of the 2004 EU accession countries in relation to the eurozone yields during the January 2, 2001- January 22, 2009 sample period. Our results show a varied degree of bond yield co-movements, the most pronounced for the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Poland, and weaker for Hungary and Slovakia. However, since the EU accession, we find some divergence of relative bond yields. We argue that a ‘static’ specification of the Maastricht criterion for long-term bond yields is not fully conducive for advancing stability of financial systems in the euro-candidate countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sacred Heart University, John F. Welch College of Business in its series Working Papers with number 2009001.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:she:wpaper:2009001

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Related research

Keywords: interest rate convergence; common currency area; new EU Member States; interest rate risk; GARCH;

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References

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  1. Markus Baltzer & Lorenzo Cappiello & Roberto A. De Santis & Simone Manganelli, 2008. "Measuring financial integration in new EU member states," Occasional Paper Series 81, European Central Bank.
  2. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Flad & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005. "Economic and monetary integration of the new Member States - helping to chart the route," Occasional Paper Series 36, European Central Bank.
  3. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-231, September.
  4. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M. & Zhou, Su, 2002. "Real and monetary convergence within the European Union and between the European Union and candidate countries: A rolling cointegration approach," ZEI Working Papers B 05-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
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Cited by:
  1. Gabrisch, Hubert & Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Pusch, Toralf, 2012. "Sovereign default Risk in the Euro-Periphery and the Euro-Candidate Countries," MPRA Paper 41265, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Evžen Kocenda & Martin Vojtek, 2011. "Default Predictors in Retail Credit Scoring: Evidence from Czech Banking Data," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(6), pages 80-98, November.
  3. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2012. "The cross-country importance of global sentiments—evidence for smaller EU countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 245-264, September.

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