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Bond Yield Compression in the Countries Converging to the Euro

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Author Info
Lucjan T. Orlowski
Kirsten Lommatzsch

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Abstract

We demonstrate that bond yield compression is under way in the countries converging to the euro and that German yields are significant drivers of local currency yields. Based on the evidence from Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, we conclude that these new Member States of the European Union are ready to adopt the euro without risking a disruptive shock to their financial stability. This message transpires from investigating the daily volatility dynamics of local bond yields as a function of German yields, conditional on changes in local term spreads, exchange rates and adjustments to central bank reference rates. Similar results of high sensitivity of local currency bond yields to changes in German yields are obtained from testing monthly series of macroeconomic fundamentals. These findings provide evidence of the potential usefulness of term spreads as indicators of monetary convergence.

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Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp799.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2005-799

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Related research
Keywords: term spread; term premium; yield compression; monetary convergence; new Member States; EMU; conditional volatility; asymmetric GARCH models;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lucjan Orlowski & Krzyzstof Rybinski, 2005. "Implications of ERM2 for Poland’s Monetary Policy," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp802, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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