This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Three aspects of the Swiss term structure: an empirical survey

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Petra Gerlach-Kristen ()
Abstract

The term structure is an important transmitter of, and indicator for, monetary policy. This paper studies the Swiss term structure using monthly data from 1989 to 2005. We study the impact of the new monetary policy strategy that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) adopted at the beginning of 2000 on three aspects of the term structure. First, we test the expectations hypothesis and find it confirmed at the short end of the yield curve. At the long end, time-varying term premia seem present. Second, we ask whether the yield curve contains information regarding future inflation and economic activity. We find that a steepening of the yield curve predicted an increase in economic activity in the short term before the change in policy strategy, but not thereafter. Third, we study the contemporaneous reaction of the term structure to macroeconomic conditions and conclude that the SNB’s commitment to stabilizing inflation may have become more credible after the change in the monetary policy strategy. Copyright Swiss Society for Financial Market Research 2007

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11408-007-0048-4
File Format: text/html
File Function:
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Financial Markets and Portfolio Management.

Volume (Year): 21 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 221-240
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:21:y:2007:i:2:p:221-240

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=119763

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: Term structure; Switzerland; E43;

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
    Other versions:
  3. Henri Bernard & Stefan Gerlach, 1996. "Does the term structure predict recessions? The international evidence," BIS Working Papers 37, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jorion, Philippe & Mishkin, Frederic, 1991. "A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizons," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-80, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Kugler, Peter, 1988. "An Empirical Note on the Term Structure and Interest Rate Stabilization Policies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(4), pages 789-92, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1990. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 815-28, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Philipp Hildebrand, 2006. "Monetary Policy and Financial Markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 7-18, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Hsu, Chiente & Kugler, Peter, 1997. "The Revival of the Expectations Hypothesis of the US Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 115-120, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Shiller, Robert J. & Huston McCulloch, J., 1990. "The term structure of interest rates," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 627-722 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Chiente Hsu & Peter Kugler, 1996. "Term Premium and Volatility: A Nonlinear Analysis of the Swiss Interest Rates," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 132(II), pages 153-176, June. [Downloadable!]
  17. Michael Woodford, 1994. "Nonstandard Indicators for Monetary Policy: Can Their Usefulness Be Judged from Forecasting Regressions?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 95-115 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  18. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 1752, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1991. "A multi-country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 2-22, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Jürg Tobler, 1999. "Ein zweistufiges Verfahren zur Schätzung der Zinskurve," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 135(I), pages 41-74, March. [Downloadable!]
  21. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2006. "Money Growth, Output Gaps and Inflation at Low and High Frequency: Spectral Estimates for Switzerland," CEPR Discussion Papers 5723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Urs Beer, 1990. "Eine Methode zur Schätzung der Zinsstruktur in der Schweiz," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 126(I), pages 39-50, March. [Downloadable!]
  25. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Kugler, Peter, 1997. "Central Bank Policy Reaction and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 217-24, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Kugler, Peter, 1996. "The term structure of interest rates and regime shifts: Some empirical results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 121-126, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Iwan Meier, 1999. "Estimating The Term Structure of Interest Rates: The Swiss Case," Working Papers 99.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
  29. Ernst Baltensperger & Thomas Jordan & Marcel Savioz, 2001. "The demand for M3 and inflation forecasts: An empirical analysis for Switzerland," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 137(2), pages 244-272, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Glen Larsen & Bruce Resnick, 2008. "Return enhancement trading strategies for size based portfolios," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 21-45, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Each page is provided with a technical contact, in case something is not right with the supplied information. See under "publisher info".

This page was last updated on 2009-12-4.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.