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Interpreting the Term Structure of Interbank Rates in Hong Kong

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  • Gerlach, Stefan

Abstract

This Paper studies the term structure of short-term interbank rates in Hong Kong. Principal component analysis suggests that the variation of the term structure can be largely attributed to two components that capture shifts in the level and slope of the yield curve. We find that term spreads contain no information about future short-term rates. The Expectations Hypothesis, which states that long-term rates depend on expected future short-term rates plus a constant term premium, is also soundly rejected by the data. We are, however, unable to reject a modified version of the EH that incorporates time-varying term premia.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3187.

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Date of creation: Feb 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3187

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Keywords: expectations hypothesis; hong kong; term structure of interest rates;

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References

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  1. Henri Bernard & Stefan Gerlach, 1996. "Does the term structure predict recessions? The international evidence," BIS Working Papers 37, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Pagan, Adrian & Ullah, Aman, 1988. "The Econometric Analysis of Models with Risk Terms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 87-105, April.
  3. Mishkin, F.S., 1988. "What Does The Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," Papers fb-_88-29, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  4. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
  5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "A Multi-Country Study of the Information in the Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Robert J. Shiller & J. Huston McCulloch, 1987. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  8. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1990. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 815-28, August.
  9. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
  10. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1996. "On Biases in Tests of the Expecations Hypothesis of the Term Structure Of Interest Rates," NBER Technical Working Papers 0191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Mankiw, N Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-28, May.
  12. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April.
  13. Jorion, Philippe & Mishkin, Frederic, 1991. "A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizons," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-80, March.
  14. Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
  15. Gregory D. Sutton, 2000. "A defence of the expectations theory as a model of us long-term interest rates," BIS Working Papers 85, Bank for International Settlements.
  16. Gerlach, Stefan, 1997. "The Information Content of the Term Structure: Evidence for Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 161-79.
  17. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "The Term Structure of Euro-Rates: Some Evidence in Support of the Expectations Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1258, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1991. "A multi-country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 2-22, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Tak-Kuen Siu & Wai-Ki Ching & Eric Fung & Michael Ng, 2005. "Extracting Information from Spot Interest Rates and Credit Ratings using Double Higher-Order Hidden Markov Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 69-102, November.
  2. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates, the Expectations Hypothesis and International Financial Integration: Evidence from Asian Economies," Working Paper Series 34_10, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  3. Suzan Hol, 2006. "Determinants of long-term interest rates in the Scandinavian countries," Discussion Papers 469, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  4. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Serra, Thiago R. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2009. "The expectation hypothesis of interest rates and network theory: The case of Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(7), pages 1137-1149.

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