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The Relation between Default-Free Interest Rates and Expected Economic Growth Is Stronger Than You Think

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  • Kamara, Avraham

Abstract

The relation between default-free interest rates and expected economic growth is substantially stronger than suggested by extant literature. Futures-implied Treasury bill yield spreads are more highly correlated with future real consumption, investment, and GNP growth than spot spreads. This stronger relation arises because using futures removes a component of the spot term structure that covaries negatively with real economic growth. Treasury forward rates from spot bills contain a premium for the risk that short-sellers will default. This risk premium is negatively related to expected economic growth. Copyright 1997 by American Finance Association.

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  • Kamara, Avraham, 1997. "The Relation between Default-Free Interest Rates and Expected Economic Growth Is Stronger Than You Think," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1681-1694, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:52:y:1997:i:4:p:1681-94
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    Cited by:

    1. Gady Jacoby & Chuan Liao & Jonathan A. Batten, 2007. "A Pure Test for the Elasticity of Yield Spreads," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp195, IIIS.
    2. Kalyvitis Sarantis & Panopoulou Ekaterini, 2013. "Estimating C-CAPM and the equity premium over the frequency domain," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(5), pages 551-571, December.
    3. Shaukat, Badiea & Zhu, Qigui & Khan, M. Ijaz, 2019. "Real interest rate and economic growth: A statistical exploration for transitory economies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    4. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "Monetary policy and the first- and second-moment exchange rate change during the global financial crisis: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-194.
    5. Guochen PAN & Tsangyao CHANG & Mei-Chih WANG & Mengqi LIU & Iuliana Carmen BĂRBĂCIORU, 2023. "Reassessing the Nexus between Insurance Activities and Economic Growth in China Through Quantile Approaches," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 57-71, December.
    6. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "What explains the initial return of initial public offerings after the 1997 Asian financial crisis? Evidence from Thailand," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 89-113.
    7. Gerlach, Stefan, 2003. "Interpreting the term structure of interbank rates in Hong Kong," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 593-609, November.
    8. Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "Interpreting an Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 380, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Fernando Lefort G. & Eduardo Walker H., 2000. "The Structure of Real Interest Rates in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 3(2), pages 31-52, August.
    10. Hyde, Stuart & Sherif, Mohamed, 2010. "Consumption asset pricing and the term structure," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 99-109, February.
    11. Badiea Shaukat & Qigui Zhu, 2021. "Finance and growth: Particular role of Zakat to levitate development in transition economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 998-1017, January.
    12. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Mr. Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2002. "The Corporate Spread Curve and Industrial Production in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2002/008, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2021. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 341-362, November.
    14. J.Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "An interpretation of an affine term structure model of Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(2 Year 20), pages 155-184, December.

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