This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Is the yield curve a useful information variable for the Eurosystem?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Jan Marc Berk () (De Nederlandsche Bank, P.O. Box 98, 1000 AB Amsterdam, The Netherlands.)
Peter A.G. Vanbergeijk () (Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR), Research Center for Economic Policy, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands.)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The focus of this paper is on the use of the yield curve in monetary policy making. Theoretical arguments and a multi-country empirical analysis with an explicit focus on the euro area suggest the need for caution in case the Eurosystem uses the yield curve as an information variable for monetary policy, because multiple theoretical explanations exist for an observed movement in the yield curve, suggesting that policy reactions cannot be prescribed unambiguously. In addition, the empirical analysis shows that, in contrast with earlier findings of, for example, Hardouvelis (1994) and Bernard and Gerlach (1996), the information content of the yield curve is fairly limited. For the individual European countries participating in the Eurosystem as well as for the euro area as a whole, the yield spread possesses only very limited information relating to future movements in the inflation rate and output growth, over-and-above the information contained in the history of the latter variables. JEL Classification: E43; E52.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp011.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 11.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20000011

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Email:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Official Publications).

Related research
Keywords: Yield curve; monetary policy.;

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Francisco Alonso & Juan Ayuso & Jorge Martínez Pagés, 1997. "How Informative are Financial Asset Prices in Spain?," Banco de España Working Papers 9726, Banco de España.
  2. Koedijk, Kees G & Kool, Clemens J M, 1995. "Future Inflation and the Information in International Term Structures," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 217-42.
  3. Svensson, Lars E O, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-4," CEPR Discussion Papers 1051, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1997. "Central bank independence and inflation targeting: monetary policy paradigms for the next millenium?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 19-36. [Downloadable!]
  6. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, M. R., 1996. "Forecasting inflation from the term structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 103-122, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1989. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Effects of Macroeconomic Policy," NBER Working Papers 2902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Joseph G. Haubrich & Ann M. Dombrosky, 1996. "Predicting real growth using the yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 26-35. [Downloadable!]
  10. Philippe Jorion & Frederic Mishkin, 1991. "A Multi-Country Comparison of Term Structure Forecasts at Long Horizons," NBER Working Papers 3574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1995. "Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 3-10, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Sauer, Christine & Scheide, Joachim, 1995. "Money, Interest Rate Spreads, and Economic Activity," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 2626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Schich, Sebastian T, 1999. "The Information Content of the German Term Structure Regarding Inflation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 385-95, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1990. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 815-28, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Shiller, Robert J. & Huston McCulloch, J., 1990. "The term structure of interest rates," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 627-722 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Robert J. Shiller & J. Huston McCulloch, 1987. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1991. "A multi-country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 2-22, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Francisco Alonso & Juan Ayuso & Jorge Martínez Pagés, 1997. "How Informative are Financial Asset Prices in Spain?," Banco de España Working Papers 9726, Banco de España.
  23. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1375-1401, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Monetary policy; expectations and commitment," Working Paper Series 124, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Viktor Kotlán, 2001. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in a small open economy - a model framework approach," Macroeconomics 0110003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 063, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Andrea Generale & Ignacio Hernando & Philip Vermeulen & Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2001. "Firm investment and monetary policy transmission in the Euro area," Working Paper Series 112, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. SANTOS, Carlos & OLIVEIRA, Maria Alberta, 2007. "Modelling The German Yield Curve And Testing The Lucas Critique, 1975-2001," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Eugenio Gaiotti & Andrea Generale, 2001. "Does monetary policy have asymmetric effects? A look at the investment decisions of Italian firms," Working Paper Series 110, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Konstantijn Maes, 2004. "Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Where Do We Stand?," Research series 200402, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Livio Stracca & Ali Al-Nowaihi, 2002. "Non-standard Central Bank loss functions; skewed risks; and certainty equivalence," Working Paper Series 129, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & George Kapetanios, 2001. "Spectral based methods to identify common trends and common cycles," Working Paper Series 062, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Fiorella de Fiore, 2000. "The optimal inflation tax when taxes are costly to collect," Working Paper Series 38, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Fiorella de Fiore, 2000. "Can indeterminacy explain the short-run non-neutrality of money?," Working Paper Series 32, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mariam Camarero & Javier Ordóñez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2008. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure in the Euro area:," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(3), pages 1-15. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jan Gottschalk & Felipe Martinez Rico & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2000. "Money as an Indicator in the Euro Zone," Kiel Working Papers 984, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2005. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Activity and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Reassessment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 318-342, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Stefan Straetmans & Casper G. De Vries & Philipp Hartmann, 2001. "Asset market linkages in crisis periods," Working Paper Series 071, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2002. "Natural rate doubts," Working Paper Series 121, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Andrea Nobili, 2007. "Assessing the predictive power of financial spreads in the euro area: does parameters instability matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 177-195, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Jelena Zubkova, 2003. "Interest Rate Term Structure in Latvia in the Monetary Policy Context," Working Papers 2003/03, Latvijas Banka. [Downloadable!]
  19. Ivan Paya & Agustín Duarte & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2004. "Predicting Real Growth And The Probability Of Recession In The Euro Area Using The Yield Spread," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-31, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning stability in economics with heterogenous agents," Working Paper Series 120, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Jan Gottschalk, 2001. "Monetary Conditions in the Euro Area: Useful Indicators of Aggregate Demand Conditions?," Kiel Working Papers 1037, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  22. Anna Piretti & Charles St-Arnaud, 2006. "Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies," Working Papers 06-22, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  23. Jan Gottschalk, 2001. "An Introduction into the SVAR Methodology: Identification, Interpretation and Limitations of SVAR models," Kiel Working Papers 1072, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? All bibliographic data on IDEAS has been put in the public domain by the publishers.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-15.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.