On the Predictive Power of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Spreads
AbstractA number of interest rates and interest rate spreads have been found to be useful in prediction the course of the economy. We compare the predictive power of some of these suggested interest rate variables for nine indicators of real activity and the inflation rate. Our results are consistent with those of Stock and Watson (1989) and Friedman and Kuttner (1989), who found that the spread between the commercial paper rate and the Treasury bill rate has been a particularly good predictor. We present evidence that this spread is informative not so much because it is a measure of default risk (which has been the usual presumption), but because it is an indicator of the stance of monetary policy; for example, during the "credit crunches" of the l960s aid the 1970s, the commercial paper -- Treasury bill spread typically rose significantly. We also show that, possibly because of charges in monetary policy operating procedures aid in financial markets, this spread appears r to be a less reliable predictor than it used to be.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3486.
Date of creation: Oct 1990
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Publication status: published as New England Economic Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) November-December 1990, pp. 51-68.
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- Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
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- Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
- Van Horne, James C., 1979. "Behavior of default-risk premiums for corporate bonds and commercial paper," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 301-313, December.
- Robert B. Litterman & Laurence M. Weiss, 1984.
"Money, real interest rates, and output: a reinterpretation of postwar U.S. data,"
Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
89, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Litterman, Robert B & Weiss, Laurence M, 1985. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 129-56, January.
- Robert B. Litterman & Laurence Weiss, 1983. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 1077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "A reconsideration of Sims' evidence concerning monetarism," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 167-171.
- Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1989. "Money, Income and Prices After the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 2852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1989. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, November.
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