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The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates: Implications for Exchange Rates and the Forward Premium Anomaly

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Author Info
Jacob Boudoukh
Matthew Richardson
Robert Whitelaw
Abstract

The forward premium anomaly is one of the most robust puzzles in financial economics. We recast the underlying parity relation in terms of cross-country differences between forward interest rates rather than spot interest rates with dramatic results. These forward interest rate differentials have statistically and economically significant forecast power for annual exchange rate movements, both in- and out-of-sample, and the signs and magnitudes of the corresponding coefficients are consistent with economic theory. Forward interest rates also forecast future spot interest rates and future inflation. Thus, we attribute much of the forward premium anomaly to the anomalous behavior of short-term interest rates, not to a breakdown of the link between fundamentals and exchange rates.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11840.

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Date of creation: Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11840

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G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Zsolt Darvas & Gábor Rappai & Zoltán Schepp, 2006. "Uncovering Yield Parity: A new insight into the UIP puzzle through the stationarity of long maturity forward rates," DNB Working Papers 098, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Zsolt Darvas & Zoltán Schepp, 2006. "Long maturity forward rates of major currencies are stationary," Working Papers 0603, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Maurice J. Roche & Michael J. Moore, 2007. "Solving Exchange Rate Puzzles with neither Sticky Prices nor Trade Costs," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1750507, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  4. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González & John Jairo León & Luis Fernando Melo, . "Efectos de los cambios en la tasa de intervención del Banco de la República sobre la estructura a plazo," Borradores de Economia 424, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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