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Central Bank Policy Reaction and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure

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  • Kugler, Peter
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    Abstract

    This paper applies the monetary policy reaction model developed by McCallum to the term structure of interest rates. First, it contains the solution of a rational expectations model of the central bank policy reaction, with respect to the current long short-spread for the N period long rate case. Second, it applies this model rather successfully to recent weekly data for four countries. Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

    Volume (Year): 2 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 3 (July)
    Pages: 217-24

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    Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:2:y:1997:i:3:p:217-24

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    Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/

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    Cited by:
    1. Gallmeyer, Michael F. & Hollifield, Burton & Zin, Stanley E., 2005. "Taylor rules, McCallum rules and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 921-950, July.
    2. Tzavalis, Elias, 2004. "The term premium and the puzzles of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 73-93, January.
    3. Kugler, Peter, 2000. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates, open interest rate parity and central bank policy reaction," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 209-214, February.
    4. Nagayasu, Jun, 2004. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Monetary Policy during a Zero Interest Rate Period," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(2), pages 19-43, May.
    5. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2009. "Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-20, CIRANO.
    6. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2001. "Expectation Puzzles, Time-varying Risk Premia, and Dynamic Models of the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 8167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Kugler, Peter, 2002. "The term premium, time varying interest rate volatility and central bank policy reaction," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 311-316, August.
    8. Boero, G. & Torricelli, C., 1998. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis and Policy Reaction to the Term Spread: Some Comparative Evidence," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 512, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    9. Anker, Peter, 1999. "Uncovered interest parity, monetary policy and time-varying risk premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 835-851, December.
    10. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2007. "Three aspects of the Swiss term structure: an empirical survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 221-240, June.
    11. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2002. "Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 415-441, March.

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