Risk and Policy Shocks on the US Term Structure
AbstractWe document two stylised facts of US short- and long-term interest rate data incompatible with the pure expectations hypothesis: Relatively slow adjustment to long-run relations and low contemporaneous correlation. We construct a small structural model which features three types of randomness: While a persistent monetary policy shock implies immediate identical reactions through the term structure, both a transitory policy shock and an autocorrelated risk premium allow for the sustained decoupling observed in the data. Indeed, we find important impacts and persistence of risk premia and a decomposition of policy shocks judging a larger part as transitory the longer the investment horizon.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Regensburg, Department of Economics in its series University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems with number 438.
Date of creation: 16 Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Expectations Hypothesis; Risk Premium; Policy Reaction Function; Persistence; Transitory Shocks;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-07-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-07-24 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FMK-2010-07-24 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2010-07-24 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2010-07-24 (Monetary Economics)
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