IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v49y1995i4p381-389.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The persistence in volatility of the US term premium 1970-1986

Author

Listed:
  • Tzavalis, Elias
  • Wickens, M. R.

Abstract

This paper examines the persistence of the volatility of the risk premia for excess holding period returns of the term structure using a GARCH-M model of the conditional variance. The finding of a high degree of persistance cannot be sustained once allowance is made for a structural break in the unconditional variance caused by a change in the operation of US monetary policy during 1979-1982.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, M. R., 1995. "The persistence in volatility of the US term premium 1970-1986," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 381-389, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:49:y:1995:i:4:p:381-389
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0165-1765(95)00700-P
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, John H. H., 1991. "A Lagrange multiplier test for GARCH models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 265-271, November.
    2. Backus, David K & Gregory, Allan W, 1993. "Theoretical Relations between Risk Premiums and Conditional Variances," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 177-185, April.
    3. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Lee, Tom K Y & Tse, Y K, 1991. "Term Structure of Interest Rates in the Singapore Asian Dollar Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 143-152, April-Jun.
    5. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    6. Phillips, G. D. A. & McCabe, B. P., 1983. "The independence of tests for structural change in regression models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 283-287.
    7. Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Monetary Policy: An ARCH Application," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 66-77, February.
    8. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    9. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    10. Toyoda, Toshihisa & Ohtani, Kazuhiro, 1986. "Testing equality between sets of coefficients after a preliminary test for equality of disturbance variances in two linear regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 67-80, February.
    11. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-234, April.
    12. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 312-324, August.
    2. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2008. "Cross‐Country Evidence On Output Growth Volatility: Nonstationary Variance And Garch Models," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 509-541, September.
    3. Ekaterini Tsouma, 2007. "Stock return dynamics and stock market interdependencies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(10), pages 805-825.
    4. Enzo Weber & Jürgen Wolters, 2013. "Risk and Policy Shocks on the US Term Structure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(1), pages 101-119, February.
    5. George Kapetanios & Elias Tzavalis, 2006. "Stochastic Volatility Driven by Large Shocks," Working Papers 568, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2016. "Time-varying risk premium yield spread effect in term structure and global financial crisis: Evidence from Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 303-311.
    7. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2011. "Time-variation in term premia: International survey-based evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 605-622, June.
    8. Till Strohsal & Enzo Weber, 2014. "Mean-variance cointegration and the expectations hypothesis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 1983-1997, November.
    9. Dendramis, Yiannis & Kapetanios, George & Tzavalis, Elias, 2015. "Shifts in volatility driven by large stock market shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 130-147.
    10. Henry, O.T., 1998. "The Volatility of U.S. Term Structure Term Premia 1952-1991," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 620, The University of Melbourne.
    11. Cuthbertson, Keith & Hayes, Simon & Nitzsche, Dirk, 2000. "Are German money market rates well behaved?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 347-360, March.
    12. K. Azim Özdemir & Özgür Özel, 2011. "Regime changes in monetary policy and the Expectation Hypothesis of the term structure in Turkey," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 261-274, May.
    13. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk, 2003. "Long rates, risk premia and the over-reaction hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 417-435, March.
    14. Enzo Weber & Jürgen Wolters, 2012. "The US term structure and central bank policy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 41-45, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Broze, Laurence & Scaillet, Olivier & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1995. "Testing for continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 199-223, September.
    2. Till Strohsal & Enzo Weber, 2014. "Mean-variance cointegration and the expectations hypothesis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 1983-1997, November.
    3. Staikouras, Sotiris K., 2006. "Testing the stabilization hypothesis in the UK short-term interest rates: Evidence from a GARCH-X model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 169-189, May.
    4. Hiona Balfoussia & Mike Wickens, 2007. "Macroeconomic Sources of Risk in the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 205-236, February.
    5. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887, Elsevier.
    6. Bauer, Rob M M J & Nieuwland, Frederick G M C & Verschoor, Willem F C, 1994. "German Stock Market Dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 397-418.
    7. Kannan S. Thuraisamy, 2015. "Volatility Dynamics in the Term Structure of Latin American Sovereign International Bonds," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(5), pages 859-866, September.
    8. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    9. T. J. Brailsford & K. Maheswaran, 1998. "The Dynamics of the Australian Short†Term Interest Rate," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 23(2), pages 213-234, December.
    10. Gonçalo Faria & João Correia-da-Silva, 2012. "The price of risk and ambiguity in an intertemporal general equilibrium model of asset prices," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 507-531, November.
    11. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June.
    12. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    13. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq, 2005. "Re-examining the asymmetric predictability of conditional variances: The role of sudden changes in variance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2655-2673, October.
    14. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Pollard, 2007. "A switching ARCH (SWARCH) model of stock market volatility: some evidence from Latin America," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 54(4), pages 445-462, December.
    15. Constantin Mellios, 2007. "Interest rate options valuation under incomplete information," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 99-117, April.
    16. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2008. "Level-ARCH short rate models with regime switching: Bivariate modeling of US and European short rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 925-948, December.
    17. Gierlinger, Johannes & Gollier, Christian, 2008. "Socially Efficient Discounting under Ambiguity Aversion," IDEI Working Papers 561, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    18. Gollier, Christian, 2004. "The Consumption-Based Determinants of the Term Structure of Discount Rates," IDEI Working Papers 296, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    19. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    20. O. S. Rozanova & G. S. Kambarbaeva, 2015. "Optimal strategies of investment in a linear stochastic model of market," Papers 1501.07124, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:49:y:1995:i:4:p:381-389. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.