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Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Monetary Policy: An ARCH Application

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Lastrapes, William D

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Abstract

This paper examines the effect of shifts in U.S. monetary policy regimes on the stochastic process that generates foreign exchange rates. To account for the observed behavior of the data record, the author models nominal, dollar exchange rates as univariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic processes. He then tests the stability of this process across U.S. monetary policy regimes. For four of the currencies in the sample, accounting for regime shifts improves the fit of the model. Regime shifts also appear to diminish the degree of persistence of variance, making it less likely that exchange rates are integrated-in-variance. Copyright 1989 by Ohio State University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 21 (1989)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 66-77
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:21:y:1989:i:1:p:66-77

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  1. C S Savva & D R Osborn & L Gill, 2005. "Spillovers and Correlations between US and Major European Stock Markets: The Role of the Euro," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0515, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Christian Pierdzioch, 2000. "The Effectiveness of the FX Market Interventions of the Bundesbank During the Louvre Period: An Options-Based Analysis," Kiel Working Papers 971, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  3. Owen F. Humpage & William P. Osterberg, 1990. "Intervention and the foreign exchange risk premium: an empirical investigation of daily effects," Working Paper 9009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  4. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Modeling the Volatility of Real GDP Growth: The Case of Japan Revisited," Working Papers 0904, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Ana Isabel Bezerra Cavalcanti, 2003. "Instabilidade e Não-Linearidades nos Mercados Financeiros," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] c52, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  6. Shingo Goto, 2000. "The Fed's Effect on Excess Returns and Inflation is Much Bigger Than You Think," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1058, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Christos Savva & Denise R Osborn & Len Gill, 2005. "Volatility, spillover Effects and Correlations in US and Major European Markets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 23, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  8. Carmen Broto, 2008. "Inflation targeting in Latin America: Empirical analysis using GARCH models," Banco de España Working Papers 0826, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  9. Owen F. Humpage & William P. Osterberg, 1992. "New results on the impact of central-bank intervention on deviations from uncovered interest parity," Working Paper 9207, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hyytinen, Ari, 1999. "Stock Return Volatility on Scandinavian Stock Markets and the Banking Industry," Research Discussion Papers 19/1999, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  11. Chihwa Kao, 2001. "Geography, Industrial Organization, and Agglomeration Heteroskedasticity Models with Estimates of the Variances of Foreign Exchange Rates," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 34, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Michael Y. Hu & Christine X. Jiang & Christos Tsoukalas, 2004. "The volatility impact of the European monetary system on member and non-member currencies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 313-325, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Measuring Volatility Dynamics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Christopher J. Neely, 1998. "Target zones and conditional volatility: the role of realignments," Working Papers 1994-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Claudia M. Buch & Joerg Doepke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2002. "Business Cycle Volatility in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1129, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  16. O. David Gulley & Jahangir Sultan, 2003. "The link between monetary policy and stock and bond markets: evidence from the federal funds futures contract," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 199-209, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. John T. Cuddington & Hong Liang, 1998. "Commodity Price Volatility Across Exchange Rate Regimes," International Finance 9802003, EconWPA, revised 11 May 1998. [Downloadable!]
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