Mean-Variance Cointegration and the Expectations Hypothesis
AbstractThe present paper sheds further light on a well-known (alleged) violation of the expec- tations hypothesis of the term structure (EHT) - the frequent finding of unit roots in interest rate spreads. We show that the EHT implies (i) that the nonstationarity stems from the holding premium, which is hence (ii) cointegrated with the spread. In a stochas- tic discount factor framework we model the premium as being driven by the integrated variance of excess returns. Introducing the concept of mean-variance cointegration we actually find cointegration relations between spreads and premia in US data.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2011-007.
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Expectations Hypothesis; Holding Premium; Persistence; Cointegration; GARCH;
Other versions of this item:
- Strohsal, Till & Weber, Enzo, 2010. "Mean-Variance Cointegration and the Expectations Hypothesis," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 442, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
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