The volatility of US term structure term premia 1952 - 1991
AbstractRecent studies suggest that the term premia within the US Term Structure of Interest Rates may be adequately characterized as univariate GARCH(1, 1)-M processes, with highly persistent or even potentially explosive conditional variances. Tzavalis and Wickens (Economics Letters, 49, 1995) using data over the period 1970-1986 argue that such findings may be the result of the failure of the GARCH-M model to allow for the 1979-82 change in US monetary policy. Using an alternative approach, the results in this paper suggest that the conclusion of Tzavalis and Wickens may not be independent of the sample period considered. However the GARCH-M model provides implausible estimates of the term premia when estimated over the full sample period.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.
Volume (Year): 9 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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Other versions of this item:
- Henry, O.T., 1998. "The Volatility of U.S. Term Structure Term Premia 1952-1991," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 620, The University of Melbourne.
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
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- Christian Wolff & Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor, 2009. "Time-Variation in Term Permia: International Survey-Based Evidence," LSF Research Working Paper Series 09-02, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
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