Revealing the preferences of the US Federal Reserve
AbstractWe use Bayesian methods to estimate the preferences of the US Federal Reserve by assuming that monetary policy is performed optimally under commitment since the mid-sixties. For this purpose, we distinguish between three subperiods, i.e. the pre-Volcker, the Volcker-Greenspan and the Greenspan period. The US economy is described by the Smets and Wouters (2007) model. We find that there has been a switch in the monetary policy regime since Volcker, with a focus on output growth instead of the output gap level as a target variable. We further show that both interest rate variability and interest rate smoothing are significant target variables, though less important than the in‡ation and output growth targets. We find that the "Great Moderation" of output growth is largely explained by the decrease in the volatility of the structural shocks. The Inflation Stabilization, however, is mainly due to the change in monetary policy that took place at the start of Volcker's mandate. During the Greenspan period, the optimal Taylor rule appears to be equally robust to parameter uncertainty as the unrestricted optimal commitment rule.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2008/21.
Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2007
Date of revision: 12 Dec 2008
optimal monetary policy; central bank preferences; parameter uncertainty;
Other versions of this item:
- Pelin Ilbas, 2012. "Revealing the preferences of the US Federal Reserve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 440-473, 04.
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
- E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-01-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-01-03 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2009-01-03 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-01-03 (Monetary Economics)
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- Pelin Ilbas & Øistein Røisland & Tommy Sveen, 2013.
"The influence of the Taylor rule on US monetary policy,"
2013/04, Norges Bank.
- Pelin Ilbas & Øistein Røisland & Tommy Sveen, 2013. "The Influence of the Taylor rule on US monetary policy," Working Paper Research 241, National Bank of Belgium.
- Gregory E. Givens, 2012.
"Estimating Central Bank Preferences under Commitment and Discretion,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(6), pages 1033-1061, 09.
- Gregory Erin Givens, 2009. "Estimating Central Bank Preferences under Commitment and Discretion," Working Papers 200905, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
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- Cabrera, Nilda & Bejarano, Edilean & Savino Portugal, Marcelo, 2011. "Preferences of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and optimal monetary policy rules in the inflation targeting regime," Working Papers 2011-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Davide Debortoli & Junior Maih & Ricardo Nunes, 2011. "Loose commitment in medium-scale macroeconomic models: theory and applications," International Finance Discussion Papers 1034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Givens, Gregory & Salemi, Michael, 2012. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," MPRA Paper 39353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Angelini, Paolo & Neri, Stefano & Panetta, Fabio, 2012.
"Monetary and macroprudential policies,"
Working Paper Series
1449, European Central Bank.
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