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Do financial variables help predict the state of the business cycle in small open economies? Evidence from Switzerland

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  • Mario Meichle
  • Angelo Ranaldo
  • Attilio Zanetti

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11408-011-0173-y
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Financial Markets and Portfolio Management.

Volume (Year): 25 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 435-453

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Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:25:y:2011:i:4:p:435-453

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=119763

Related research

Keywords: Financial market variables; Business cycle; Probit models; Switzerland; E32; E37; E44;

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References

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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bernard, Henri & Gerlach, Stefan, 1998. "Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 195-215, July.
  3. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1996. "Stock markets, banks, and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1690, The World Bank.
  4. Nicolas Cuche-Curti & Pamela Hall & Attilio Zanetti, 2008. "Swiss GDP revisions: A monetary policy perspective," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2008(2), pages 183-213.
  5. Naes, Randi & Skjeltorp, Johannes & Odegaard, Bernt Arne, 2008. "Liquidity and the Business Cycle," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/1, University of Stavanger.
  6. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Fornari Fabio & Mele Antonio, 2013. "Financial Volatility and Economic Activity," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 155-198, December.
  8. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the selection of forecasting models," Working Paper Series 0214, European Central Bank.
  9. Gibson, Rajna & Mougeot, Nicolas, 2004. "The pricing of systematic liquidity risk: Empirical evidence from the US stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 157-178, January.
  10. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2007. "Three aspects of the Swiss term structure: an empirical survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 221-240, June.
  11. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
  12. Randi Næs & Johannes A. Skjeltorp & Bernt Arne Ødegaard, 2011. "Stock Market Liquidity and the Business Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 139-176, 02.
  13. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
  14. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Do Financial Variables Provide Information about the Swiss Business Cycle ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 03.02, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  15. Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2007. "Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve," Working Paper Series 2007-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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