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Liquidity and the Business Cycle

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Author Info

  • Naes, Randi

    (Ministry of Industry)

  • Skjeltorp, Johannes

    (Norges Bank)

  • Odegaard, Bernt Arne

    ()
    (University of Stavanger)

Abstract

We show evidence of a contemporaneous relation between stock market liquidity and the business cycle. Stock market liquidity worsen when the economy is slowing down, and vice versa. This effect is most pronounced for small firms. Using data for both the US and Norway, we find strong evidence that stock market liquidity predict the current and future state of the economy. We also show some evidence that can shed light on the link between stock markets and the real economy. Using stock ownership data from Norway, we find that the portfolio compositions of investors change with the business cycle. Our results suggests a flight to quality during economic downturns where equity traders move from smaller/less liquid stocks to large/liquid stocks. Our results suggest that an important explanation for the equity premium in general, and the equity size premium in particular, may be related to time variation in stock market liquidity at business cycle frequencies.

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File URL: http://www1.uis.no/ansatt/odegaard/uis_wps_econ_fin/uis_wps_2009_1_nas_skjeltorp_odegaard.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Stavanger in its series UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 2009/1.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in Journal of Finance.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:stavef:2009_001

Contact details of provider:
Postal: University of Stavanger, NO-4036 Stavanger, Norway
Web page: http://www.uis.no/research/economics_and_finance
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Keywords: Market Microstructure; Liquidity; Business Cycle;

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Cited by:
  1. Theologos Dergiades & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2013. "Tweets, Google trends and sovereign spreads in the GIIPS," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 54405, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy for overlapping models," Working Papers 2011-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2012. "International diversification: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 871-885.
  4. Umit Hacioglu & Hasan Dincer, 2013. "Evaluation of conflict hazard and financial risk in the E7 economies’ capital markets," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 79-102.
  5. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-291.
  6. Stavros Degiannakis & Andreas Andrikopoulos & Timotheos Angelidis & Christos Floros, 2013. "Return dispersion, stock market liquidity and aggregate economic activity," Working Papers 166, Bank of Greece.
  7. Rakkestad, Ketil & Skjeltorp, Johannes & Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2012. "The liquidity of the Secondary Market for Debt Securities in Norway," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2012/12, University of Stavanger.
  8. Bond, Shaun A. & Chang, Qingqing, 2012. "Liquidity dynamics across public and private markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1890-1910.
  9. Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2009. "The (implicit) cost of equity trading at the Oslo Stock Exchange. What does the data tell us?," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/17, University of Stavanger.
  10. Octavio Fernandez-Amador & Martin Gächter & Martin Larch & Georg Peter, 2011. "Monetary policy and its impact on stock market liquidity: Evidence from the euro zone," Working Papers 2011-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  11. Mario Meichle & Angelo Ranaldo & Attilio Zanetti, 2011. "Do financial variables help predict the state of the business cycle in small open economies? Evidence from Switzerland," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 435-453, December.
  12. Mariya Gubareva & Maria Rosa Borges, 2013. "Typological Classification, Diagnostics, and Measurement of Flights-to-Quality," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/15, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.

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