IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v75y2018icp181-195.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The predictive power of the yield spread for future economic expansions: Evidence from a new approach

Author

Listed:
  • Gebka, Bartosz
  • Wohar, Mark E.

Abstract

We investigate the predictive power of the yield spread for future economic growth. The novel approach adopted here is to utilise its predictive ability for the whole distribution of future growth, rather than predicting the center of this distribution directly. Our results confirm previous findings that the yield spread does contain additional information about the future GDP growth, which varies over time. Most importantly, utilising the information contained in the whole conditional distribution of predicted GDP growth, rather than concentrating on the center of it, provides additional forecasting power for shorter (3–9 months) horizons. This approach is also superior in forecasting future expansionary phases, notably a more common phenomenon than recessions for which the traditional, OLS-based forecasts seem to perform better.

Suggested Citation

  • Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "The predictive power of the yield spread for future economic expansions: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 181-195.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:75:y:2018:i:c:p:181-195
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.06.018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999317309288
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.06.018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Menzie Chinn & Kavan Kucko, 2015. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve Across Countries and Time," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 129-156, June.
    2. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    3. Fabio Moneta, 2005. "Does the Yield Spread Predict Recessions in the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 263-301, August.
    4. Bernard, Henri & Gerlach, Stefan, 1998. "Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 195-215, July.
    5. Lingjie Ma & Larry Pohlman, 2008. "Return forecasts and optimal portfolio construction: a quantile regression approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 409-425.
    6. Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2008. "Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1236-1272, April.
    7. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
    8. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
    9. Andr? Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2612-2632, October.
    10. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    11. Jardet, Caroline, 2004. "Why did the term structure of interest rates lose its predictive power?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 509-524, May.
    12. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    13. Tobias Adrian & Arturo Estrella & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Monetary cycles, financial cycles, and the business cycle," Staff Reports 421, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Troy Davig & Taeyoung Doh, 2014. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Inflation Persistence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 862-875, December.
    15. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2017. "When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1044-1064.
    16. Kim, Kenneth A. & Limpaphayom, Piman, 1997. "The effect of economic regimes on the relation between term structure and real activity in Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 379-392.
    17. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2013. "Predicting severe simultaneous recessions using yield spreads as leading indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1032-1043.
    18. West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 99-134, Elsevier.
    19. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    20. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    21. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Paolo Surico, 2005. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0510024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Michael Bordo & Joseph Haubrich, 2004. "The Yield Curve, Recession and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: long run evidence 1875-1997," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 165, Econometric Society.
    23. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51.
    24. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    25. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 1993/019, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2008. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Growth: Long-Run Evidence, 1875-1997," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 182-185, February.
    27. Galbraith, John W. & Tkacz, Greg, 2000. "Testing for asymmetry in the link between the yield spread and output in the G-7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 657-672, October.
    28. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2003. "How Stable is the Predictive Power of the Yield Curve? Evidence from Germany and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 629-644, August.
    29. Kao, Yi-Cheng & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Chen, Shikuan, 2013. "Testing the predictive power of the term structure without data snooping bias," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 546-549.
    30. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
    31. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    32. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
    33. Nakaota, Hiroshi, 2005. "The term structure of interest rates in Japan: the predictability of economic activity," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 311-326, August.
    34. Feroli Michael, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Information Content of the Yield Spread," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, September.
    35. Zhu, Min, 2013. "Return distribution predictability and its implications for portfolio selection," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 209-223.
    36. Kevin Aretz & David A. Peel, 2010. "Spreads versus professional forecasters as predictors of future output change," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 517-522.
    37. Arturo Estrella & Mary R. Trubin, 2006. "The yield curve as a leading indicator: some practical issues," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Jul).
    38. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2006. "How Stable is the Forecasting Performance of the Yield Curve for Output Growth?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 783-795, December.
    39. Loukia Meligkotsidou & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Ioannis D. Vrontos & Spyridon D. Vrontos, 2014. "A Quantile Regression Approach to Equity Premium Prediction," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 558-576, November.
    40. Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2015. "Predictable Return Distributions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 114-132, March.
    41. Davis, E Philip & Fagan, Gabriel, 1997. "Are Financial Spreads Useful Indicators of Future Inflation and Output Growth in EU Countries?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 701-714, Nov.-Dec..
    42. Adrian, Tobias & Song Shin, Hyun, 2010. "Financial Intermediaries and Monetary Economics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 12, pages 601-650, Elsevier.
    43. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    44. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2008. "Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875-1997," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 48-50, April.
    45. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, July.
    46. Schrimpf, Andreas & Wang, Qingwei, 2010. "A reappraisal of the leading indicator properties of the yield curve under structural instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 836-857, October.
    47. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
    48. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    49. Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February.
    50. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    51. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 821-862, February.
    52. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2016. "Forecasting economic activity from yield curve factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 293-311.
    53. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(4), pages 781-806, December.
    54. Rendu de Lint, Christel & Stolin, David, 2003. "The predictive power of the yield curve: a theoretical assessment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1603-1622, October.
    55. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
    56. Michael Feroli, 2004. "Monetary policy and the information content of the yield spread," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    57. Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The yield curve and predicting recessions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    58. Peel, David A. & Ioannidis, Christos, 2003. "Empirical evidence on the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and future real output changes when there are changes in policy regimes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 147-152, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The US Term Structure and Return Volatility in Global REIT Markets," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(3), pages 84-109, September.
    2. Riza Demirer & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The U.S. term structure and return volatility in emerging stock markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 687-707, October.
    3. Yutaka Kurihara & Akio Fukushima, 2019. "AR Model or Machine Learning for Forecasting GDP and Consumer Price for G7 Countries," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 1-6, May.
    4. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The US Term Structure and Return Volatility in Global REIT Markets," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(3), pages 84-109, September.
    5. Qadan, Mahmoud & Idilbi-Bayaa, Yasmeen, 2021. "The day-of-the-week-effect on the volatility of commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Saeed, Momna & Elnahass, Marwa & Izzeldin, Marwan & Tsionas, Mike, 2021. "Yield spread determinants of sukuk and conventional bonds," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    7. Idilbi-Bayaa, Yasmeen & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2022. "What the current yield curve says, and what the future prices of energy do," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
    2. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2020. "The yield spread's ability to forecast economic activity: What have we learned after 30 years of studies?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 221-232.
    3. Morell, Joseph, 2018. "The decline in the predictive power of the US term spread: A structural interpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 314-331.
    4. B. De Backer & M. Deroose & Ch. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2019. "Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 69-93, June.
    5. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2021. "Does the Yield Curve Predict Output?," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 341-362, November.
    6. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
    7. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2017. "When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1044-1064.
    8. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    9. Nakaota, Hiroshi & Fukuta, Yuichi, 2013. "The leading indicator property of the term spread and the monetary policy factors in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 85-98.
    10. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stan Hurn, 2018. "Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 966-987, November.
    11. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    12. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2019. "Time-varying predictive content of financial variables in forecasting GDP growth in the G-7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 211-222.
    13. Leo Krippner & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Forecasting New Zealand's economic growth using yield curve information," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    14. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "Monetary regimes, the term structure and business cycles in Ireland, 1972–2018," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 731-748, September.
    15. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2013. "Predicting severe simultaneous recessions using yield spreads as leading indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1032-1043.
    16. Huseyin Kaya, 2013. "On the Predictive Power of Yield Spread for Future Growth and Recession: The Turkish Case," Working Papers 010, Bahcesehir University, Betam, revised Mar 2013.
    17. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Kuosmanen, Petri & Rahko, Jaana & Vataja, Juuso, 2019. "Predictive ability of financial variables in changing economic circumstances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 37-47.
    19. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.
    20. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yield curve; Yield spread; Predictability; Forecasting; Economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:75:y:2018:i:c:p:181-195. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.