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The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies

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  • Aguiar-Conraria, Luís
  • Martins, Manuel M.F.
  • Soares, Maria Joana

Abstract

We assess the relation between the yield curve and the macroeconomy in the U.S. between 1961 and 2011. We add to the standard parametric macro-finance models, as we uncover evidence simultaneously on the time and frequency domains. We model the shape of the yield curve by latent factors corresponding to its level, slope and curvature. The macroeconomic variables measure real activity, inflation and monetary policy. The tools of wavelet analysis, the set of variables and the length of the sample allow for a thorough appraisal of the time-variation in the direction, intensity, synchronization and periodicity of the yield curve–macroeconomy relation.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
Issue (Month): 12 ()
Pages: 1950-1970

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:12:p:1950-1970

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Macro-finance; Yield curve; Kalman filter; Continuous wavelet transform; Wavelet coherency; Phase-difference;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Lukas Vacha & Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek & David Zilberman, 2012. "Time-Frequency Dynamics of Biofuels-Fuels-Food System," Papers 1209.0900, arXiv.org.
  2. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B. & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Interest rate spreads and output: A time scale decomposition analysis using wavelets," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 283-290.
  3. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Pedro Magalhães & Maria Soares, 2013. "The nationalization of electoral cycles in the United States: a wavelet analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 387-408, September.
  4. Jozef Barunik & Evzen Kocenda & Lukas Vacha, 2013. "Gold, Oil, and Stocks," Papers 1308.0210, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2014.
  5. Rita Sousa & Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2014. "Carbon Financial Markets: a time-frequency analysis of CO2 price drivers," NIPE Working Papers 03/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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