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An arbitrage-free generalized Nelson-Siegel term structure model Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Jens H. E. Christensen
Francis X. Diebold
Glenn D. Rudebusch
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The Svensson generalization of the popular Nelson-Siegel term structure model is widely used by practitioners and central banks. Unfortunately, like the original Nelson-Siegel specification, this generalization, in its dynamic form, does not enforce arbitrage-free consistency over time. Indeed, we show that the factor loadings of the Svensson generalization cannot be obtained in a standard finance arbitrage-free affine term structure representation. Therefore, we introduce a closely related generalized Nelson-Siegel model on which the no-arbitrage condition can be imposed. We estimate this new arbitrage-free generalized Nelson-Siegel model and demonstrate its tractability and good in-sample fit.
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2008-07.
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Keywords: Interest rates ; Econometric models ; Other versions of this item:
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005.
"Modeling bond yields in finance and macroeconomics ,"
Working Paper Series
2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005.
"Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics ,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2005/03, Center for Financial Studies.
[Downloadable!] Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005.
"Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics ,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
05-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
[Downloadable!] Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn Rudebusch, 2005.
"Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics ,"
NBER Working Papers
11089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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"Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics ,"
American Economic Review ,
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[Downloadable!] Clive G. Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008.
"The dynamics of economics functions: modelling and forecasting the yield curve ,"
Working Papers
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Clive Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008.
"The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve ,"
OFRC Working Papers Series
2008fe24, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
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Soderlind, P & Svensson, L-E-O, 1996.
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Papers
621, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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Seminar Papers
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Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
657, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
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Other versions: Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007.
"The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of: Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models ,"
NBER Working Papers
13611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Other versions: Gregory R. Duffee, 2002.
"Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
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Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006.
"Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
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Other versions:
Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003.
"Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields ,"
NBER Working Papers
10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2004.
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CFS Working Paper Series
2004/09, Center for Financial Studies.
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"Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields ,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
[Downloadable!] Björk, Tomas & Christensen, Bent Jesper, 1997.
"Interest Rate Dynamics and Consistent Forward Rate Curves ,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
209, Stockholm School of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Don H. Kim & Athanasios Orphanides, 2005.
"Term structure estimation with survey data on interest rate forecasts ,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2005-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2009.
"Do central bank liquidity facilities affect interbank lending rates? ,"
Working Paper Series
2009-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2007.
"Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No-Arbitrage and Macro-Finance Models ,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking ,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 395-422, 03.
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Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006.
"The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
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Other versions: Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008.
"Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields ,"
Working Paper Series
2008-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
[Downloadable!]
Laura Coroneo & Ken Nyholm & Rositsa Vidova-Koleva, 2008.
"How Arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel Model? ,"
Working Paper Series
874, European Central Bank.
[Downloadable!]
Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987.
"Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves ,"
Journal of Business ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
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Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000.
"Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models ,"
Journal of Finance ,
American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
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Michiel De Pooter, 2007.
"Examining the Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models ,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
07-043/4, Tinbergen Institute.
[Downloadable!]
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Rafael Barros de Rezende, 2008.
"Giving flexibility to the Nelso-Siegel class of term structure models ,"
Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting]
200807211322560, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
[Downloadable!]
Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2008.
"Inflation expectations and risk premiums in an arbitrage-free model of nominal and real bond yields ,"
Working Paper Series
2008-34, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
[Downloadable!]
Leo Krippner, 2009.
"A theoretical foundation for the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models ,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
DP2009/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
[Downloadable!]
ZHU Xiaoneng & Shahidur RAHMAN, 2009.
"This paper presents and estimates a regime switching macro-finance model of the term structure with latent and macroeconomic factors. The joint dynamics of the yield and macro factors are examined sim ,"
Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series
0901, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.
[Downloadable!]
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