Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Predicting U.S. Recessions with Dynamic Binary Response Models

Contents:

Author Info

  • Heikki Kauppi

    (Department of Economics, University of Turku)

  • Pentti Saikkonen

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Helsinki)

Abstract

We develop dynamic binary probit models and apply them for predicting U.S. recessions using the interest rate spread as the driving predictor. The new models use lags of the binary response (a recession dummy) to forecast its future values and allow for the potential forecast power of lags of the underlying conditional probability. We show how multiperiod-ahead forecasts are computed iteratively using the same one-period-ahead model. Iterated forecasts that apply specific lags supported by statistical model selection procedures turn out to be more accurate than previously used direct forecasts based on horizon-specific model specifications. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/rest.90.4.777
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 90 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 777-791

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:90:y:2008:i:4:p:777-791

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/

Order Information:
Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00346535

Related research

Keywords:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Candelon Bertrand & Ahmed Jameel & Straetmans Stefan, 2012. "Predicting and Capitalizing on Stock Market Bears in the U.S," Research Memoranda 019, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization.
  2. Herrala, Risto & Kauko, Karlo, 2007. "Household loan loss risk in Finland – estimations and simulations with micro data," Research Discussion Papers 5/2007, Bank of Finland.
  3. Ang, James & Smedema, Adam, 2011. "Financial flexibility: Do firms prepare for recession?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 774-787, June.
  4. Miguel Ángel Morales Mosquera & Wilmar Cabrera & Laura Capera & Dairo Estrada, . "Un Mapa de Riesgo de Crédito para el Sistema Financiero Colombiano," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 068, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
  6. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
  7. Nyberg, Henri, 2010. "QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 23724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona, 2012. "Econometric methods for financial crises," Open Access publications from Maastricht University urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-29274, Maastricht University.
  9. Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2012. "Qual VAR Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story," IWH Discussion Papers 12, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  10. Fabio Fornari & Wolfgang Lemke, 2010. "Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons," Working Paper Series 1255, European Central Bank.
  11. Candelon Bertrand & Dumitrescu Elena-Ivona & Hurlin Christophe, 2010. "Currency Crises Early Warning Systems: why they should be Dynamic," Research Memoranda 047, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization.
  12. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2011. "Econometric Analysis and Prediction of Recurrent Events," CREATES Research Papers 2011-33, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  13. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Nalewaik, Jeremy J., 2011. "Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 281-307, April.
  15. Eichler Michael & Grothe Oliver & Tuerk Dennis & Manner Hans, 2012. "Modeling spike occurrences in electricity spot prices for forecasting," Research Memoranda 029, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization.
  16. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2011. "Forecasting recessions using stall speeds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Nyberg, Henri, 2011. "Forecasting the direction of the US stock market with dynamic binary probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 561-578, April.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:90:y:2008:i:4:p:777-791

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Karie Kirkpatrick).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.