The yield curve as a leading indicator: some practical issues
AbstractSince the 1980s, economists have argued that the slope of the yield curve-the spread between long- and short-term interest rates-is a good predictor of future economic activity. While much of the existing research has documented how consistently movements in the curve have signaled past recessions, considerably less attention has been paid to the use of the yield curve as a forecasting tool in real time. This analysis seeks to fill that gap by offering practical guidelines on how best to construct the yield curve indicator and to interpret the measure in real time.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Current Issues in Economics and Finance.
Volume (Year): 12 (2006)
Issue (Month): Jul ()
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Hans Dewachter, 2008. "Imperfect information, macroeconomic dynamics and the yield curve : an encompassing macro-finance model," Working Paper Research 144, National Bank of Belgium.
- Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Leung, 2011.
"Monetary Policy, Term Structure and Asset Return: Comparing REIT, Housing and Stock,"
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,
Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 221-257, July.
- Chang, Kuang-Liang & Chen, Nan-Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Term Structure and Asset Return: Comparing REIT, Housing and Stock," MPRA Paper 23514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sessi Tokpavi, 2013. "Testing for the Systemically Important Financial Institutions: a Conditional Approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-27, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2008. "Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1040, The University of Melbourne.
- Raffaele Passaro, 2007. "The Predictive Power of Interest Rates Spread for Economic Activity," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 97(6), pages 81-112, November-.
- Nektarios Aslanidis & Charlotte Christiansen, 2010.
"Smooth Transition Patterns in the Realized Stock Bond Correlation,"
CREATES Research Papers
2010-15, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Aslanidis, Nektarios & Christiansen, Charlotte, 2011. "Smooth Transition Patterns in the Realized Stock- Bond Correlation," Working Papers 2072/152138, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
- Joshua V. Rosenberg & Samuel Maurer, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-11.
- Chris Kenyon & Andrew Green, 2013. "Regulatory-Optimal Funding," Papers 1310.3386, arXiv.org.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2007.
"Forecasting recessions: the puzzle of the enduring power of the yield curve,"
Working Paper Series
2007-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2009. "Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 492-503.
- Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012.
"The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
- Luís Francisco Aguiar & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2010. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," NIPE Working Papers 21/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2010. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," CEF.UP Working Papers 1004, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
- Heikki Kauppi, 2008. "Yield-Curve Based Probit Models for Forecasting U.S. Recessions: Stability and Dynamics," Discussion Papers 31, Aboa Centre for Economics.
- Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2012.
"In the shadow of the United States: the international transmission effect of asset returns,"
Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper
121, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Chang, Kuang Liang & Chen, Nan Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2011. "In the Shadow of the United States: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 32776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Grabowski, Szymon, 2008. "What does a financial system say about future economic growth?," MPRA Paper 11560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 419-440.
- Krüger, Jens J. & Hoss, Julian, 2012. "German business cycle forecasts, asymmetric loss and financial variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 284-287.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Farber).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.