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Time-Varying Yield Curve Dynamics and Monetary Policy

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  • Mumtaz, Haroon

    ()
    (Monetary Assessment and Strategy, Bank of England)

  • Surico, Paolo

    ()
    (Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England)

Abstract

The dynamics of the US economy are modelled using a time-varying structural vector autoregression that incorporates information from the yield curve. We find important changes in the dynamics of macroeconomic variables such as inflation and the federal funds rate. In addition our results suggest a change in the relationship between the yield curve and macroeconomic variables. The monetary policy shocks of the early 1980s explain a large portion of the persistence of inflation and the level of the yield curve. Shocks to the level of the yield curve account for the persistence of the federal funds rate. We use our time-varying model provides to revisit the evidence on the expectations hypothesis.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England in its series Discussion Papers with number 23.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:0023

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Keywords: Nelson-Siegel; time variation; inflation expectations; credibility building; evidence on expectations hypothesis;

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References

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  1. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving international inflation dynamics: evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model," Bank of England working papers 341, Bank of England.
  2. Andrea Carriero & Carlo Favero & Iryna Kaminska, 2004. "Financial Factors, Macroeconomic Information and the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 253, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  3. Ben Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr S. Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
  2. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  3. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2010. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," NIPE Working Papers 21/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  4. Giraitis, L. & Kapetanios, G. & Yates, T., 2014. "Inference on stochastic time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 46-65.
  5. Alessia Paccagnini, 2014. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of the US Term-Structure during the Great Moderation," Working Papers 274, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2014.
  6. Ferman, Marcelo, 2011. "Switching Monetary Policy Regimes and the Nominal Term Structure," Dynare Working Papers 5, CEPREMAP.
  7. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2011. "Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2011/13, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  8. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 856-871, September.
  9. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.

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