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Predicting Real Growth And The Probability Of Recession In The Euro Area Using The Yield Spread

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Author Info
Ivan Paya () (Universidad de Alicante)
Agustín Duarte (Universidad de Alicante)
Ioannis A. Venetis (Centre of Planning and Economic Research (KEPE))

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Abstract

Although the spread has been established as a leading indicator of economic activity, recent studies on US and EU countries have documented, theoretically and empirically, that the term spread-output growth relationship may not be stable over time and it may be subjected to nonlinearities. Using aggregate data for the Euro area over the period 1970:1 - 2000:4, we applied linear regression as well as nonlinear models to examine the predictive accuracy of the term spread-output growth relationship. Our results confirm the ability of the yield curve as a leading indicator. Moreover, significant nonlinearity with respect to time and past annual growth is detected outperforming the linear model in out-of-sample forecasts of one-year-ahead annual growth. Furthermore probit models that use the EMU and US yield spreads are successful in predicting EMU recessions.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie AD with number 2004-31.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2004
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Publication status: Published by Ivie
Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2004-31

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Keywords: Term Spread and Real Growth; Threshold Models; Recession; Forecasting Accuracy;

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  5. Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2003. "Re-examination of the predictability of economic activity using the yield spread: a nonlinear approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 187-206. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Andrea Nobili, 2007. "Assessing the predictive power of financial spreads in the euro area: does parameters instability matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 177-195, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Hogrefe, Jens, 2007. "The yield spread and GDP growth - Time Varying Leading Properties and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 2007,12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "The predictive content of financial variables: Evidence from the euro area," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp178, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  6. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2005. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 522, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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