Does the Yield Spread Predict Recessions in the Euro Area?
AbstractThis paper studies the informational content of the slope of the yield curve as a predictor of recessions in the euro area and provides evidence of the potential usefulness of this indicator for monetary policy purposes. In particular, the historical predictive power of ten variations of yield spreads, for different segments of the yield curve, is tested using a probit model. The yield spread between the ten-year government bond rate and the three-month interbank rate outperforms all other spreads in predicting recessions in the euro area. The forecast accuracy of the spread between ten-year and three-month interest rates is also explored in an exercise of out-of-sample forecasting. This yield spread appears to contain information beyond that already available in the history of output, and to outperform other competitor indicators. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2005
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal International Finance.
Volume (Year): 8 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (08)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1367-0271
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Anderson, Heather M. & Dungey, Mardi & Osborn, Denise R. & Vahid, Farshid, 2011.
"Financial integration and the construction of historical financial data for the Euro Area,"
Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1498-1509, July.
- Heather M. Anderson & Mardi Dungey & Denise R Osborn & Farshid Vahid, 2010. "Financial Integration and the Construction of Historical Financial Data for the Euro Area," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 152, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2012. "Macro-financial linkages and business cycles: A factor-augmented probit approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1793-1797.
- Castro, Vítor, 2008.
"The duration of economic expansions and recessions : More than duration dependence,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
860, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
- Vítor Castro, 2008. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," NIPE Working Papers 18/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
- Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
- Panopoulou, Ekaterini, 2009. "Financial variables and euro area growth: A non-parametric causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1414-1419, November.
- Heather Anderson & Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn & Farshid Vahid, 2007.
"Constructing Historical Euro Area Data,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006
99, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Francis Bismans & Reynald Majetti, 2013. "Forecasting recessions using financial variables: the French case," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 419-433, April.
- Panopoulou, Ekaterini, 2007. "Predictive financial models of the euro area: A new evaluation test," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 695-705.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.