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Forecast Performance of Threshold Autoregressive Models - A Monte Carlo Study

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Abstract

Threshold Autoregressive Models (TAR) along with other nonlinear time series models have attracted much attention in recent years in time series analysis. TAR models have been applied to a variety of time series. It has been reported that they have a good in sample fit but like many other non-linear time series models cannot improve out of sample forecast performance. Within a controlled simulation framework, we study the forecast performance under two types of non-linearity: shift in the mean and shift in the volatility of the process. We illustrate that estimation of the lag parameter and threshold value are crucial for forecast performance. Monte Carlo results show that TAR model performs much better than a Random Walk (RW) model; however, it provides no significant improvement over a linear Autoregressive (AR) model. Conclusions on the relative forecast performance of TAR models based on a single data set can be quite different than long run (Monte Carlo) results.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics in its series UWO Department of Economics Working Papers with number 9910.

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Date of creation: Nov 1998
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Handle: RePEc:uwo:uwowop:9910

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Postal: Department of Economics, Reference Centre, Social Science Centre, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada N6A 5C2
Phone: 519-661-2111 Ext.85244
Web page: http://economics.uwo.ca/research/research_papers/department_working_papers.html

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Keywords: Nonlinear Time Series; Threshold Model; Forecast Performance; Monte Carlo;

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Cited by:
  1. Ivan Paya & Agustín Duarte & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2004. "Predicting Real Growth And The Probability Of Recession In The Euro Area Using The Yield Spread," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-31, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).

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