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Swiss GDP revisions: A monetary policy perspective

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  • Nicolas Cuche-Curti
  • Pamela Hall
  • Attilio Zanetti

    ()

Abstract

This paper focuses on Swiss GDP revisions and the uncertainty they generate from the point of view of monetary policy. After a description of the revisions features, we use GDP vintages to compute real-time output gaps using a production function approach. Then, with a nominal feedback rule, we assess the impact of GDP – and hence output gap – on revisions monetary policy. The main results are threefold. First, Swiss GDP revisions – similarly to those of other small economies – are large, and estimates converge slowly to their final value. Second, GDP mismeasurements clearly exacerbate the difficulty in estimating output gaps. Third, the impact of revisions on monetary policy varies over time. Via its effect on output gaps, ceteris paribus, the inaccuracy of GDP estimates risks introducing a procyclical bias in monetary policy decisions.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-v2008-art10-en
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by OECD Publishing,CIRET in its journal OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis.

Volume (Year): 2008 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 183-213

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Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5ksnlh30lx41

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Related research

Keywords: Indicators GDP revisions; Monetary policy; Nominal feedback rule; Real-time data; Switzerland;

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Cited by:
  1. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Dating Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Evidence for Switzerland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 233(5-6), pages 661-679, October.
  2. Mario Meichle & Angelo Ranaldo & Attilio Zanetti, 2011. "Do financial variables help predict the state of the business cycle in small open economies? Evidence from Switzerland," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 435-453, December.
  3. Michael Graff & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2010. "The Information Content of Capacity Utilisation Rates for Output Gap Estimates," CESifo Working Paper Series 3276, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Nikolay Markov & Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "Estimating Taylor Rules for Switzerland: Evidence from 2000 to 2012," Working Papers 2013-08, Swiss National Bank.

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