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Liquidity and the business cycle

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Author Info

  • Randi Næs

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Johannes A. Skjeltorp

    ()
    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Bernt Arne Ødegard

    ()
    (University of Stavanger, BI Norwegian School of Management and Norges Bank)

Abstract

We show evidence of a contemporaneous relation between stock market liquidity and the business cycle. Stock market liquidity worsen when the economy is slowing down, and this effect is most pronounced for small firms. Using data for both the US and Norway, we find strong evidence that stock market liquidity predict the current and future state of the economy. We also show some evidence that can shed light on the link between stock markets and the real economy. Using stock ownership data from Norway, we find that the portfolio compositions of investors change with the business cycle, and that investor participation is correlated with market liquidity, especially for the smallest firms. This suggest a "flight to quality" during economic downturns where traders desire to move away from equity investments in general, and within their equity portfolios, move from smaller/less liquid stocks to large/liquid stocks. Our results suggest that an important explanation for the equity premium in general, and the equity size premium in particular, may be related to time variation in stock market liquidity at business cycle frequencies

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File URL: http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2008/WP-200811/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2008/11.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 28 Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2008_11

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Keywords: Market microstructure; Liquidity; Business cycles;

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Cited by:
  1. Stavros Degiannakis & Andreas Andrikopoulos & Timotheos Angelidis & Christos Floros, 2013. "Return dispersion, stock market liquidity and aggregate economic activity," Working Papers 166, Bank of Greece.
  2. Octavio Fernandez-Amador & Martin Gächter & Martin Larch & Georg Peter, 2011. "Monetary policy and its impact on stock market liquidity: Evidence from the euro zone," Working Papers 2011-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  3. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. Mccracken, 2014. "Tests Of Equal Forecast Accuracy For Overlapping Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 415-430, 04.
  4. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "Global liquidity risk in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 267-291.
  5. Bond, Shaun A. & Chang, Qingqing, 2012. "Liquidity dynamics across public and private markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1890-1910.
  6. Rakkestad, Ketil & Skjeltorp, Johannes & Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2012. "The liquidity of the Secondary Market for Debt Securities in Norway," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2012/12, University of Stavanger.
  7. Theologos Dergiades & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2014. "Tweets, Google Trends and Sovereign Spreads in the GIIPS," Discussion Paper Series 2014_04, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jun 2014.
  8. Mariya Gubareva & Maria Rosa Borges, 2013. "Typological Classification, Diagnostics, and Measurement of Flights-to-Quality," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/15, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  9. Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2009. "The (implicit) cost of equity trading at the Oslo Stock Exchange. What does the data tell us?," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/17, University of Stavanger.
  10. Umit Hacioglu & Hasan Dincer, 2013. "Evaluation of conflict hazard and financial risk in the E7 economies’ capital markets," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 79-102.
  11. Mario Meichle & Angelo Ranaldo & Attilio Zanetti, 2011. "Do financial variables help predict the state of the business cycle in small open economies? Evidence from Switzerland," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 435-453, December.
  12. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2012. "International diversification: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 871-885.

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