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Direct Inflation Targeting and Nominal Convergence: The Czech Case

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  • Roman MatouÅ¡ek

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  • Anita Taci

    ()

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    Abstract

    This study analyses the impact of direct inflation targeting (DIT) on monetary policy credibility in the Czech Republic, as evidenced by asset prices. It examines the effect of changes in the two-week repo rate (the official interest rate) on short and long–term market interest rates. It assumes the asymmetry of information and the existence of a stationary stochastic equilibrium with full knowledge of authorities reaction function. We find that at short maturities, the coefficients for changes in the official repo rate are lower in the DIT period than in the pre-crisis period. This implies that the hypothesis of no increase in the transparency of monetary policy with the introduction of DIT can be rejected. We find that bond yields and interest rate swap rates with maturities of 5 years and longer did not react significantly to official interest rate decisions in the DIT period. This is consistent with the hypothesis that monetary policy was credible both before and after introduction of DIT. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1023935120371
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

    Volume (Year): 14 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 3 (July)
    Pages: 269-283

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:14:y:2003:i:3:p:269-283

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

    Related research

    Keywords: direct inflation targeting (DIT); interest rate; repo operations;

    References

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    1. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 6790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Muller, P. & M. Zelmer, 1999. "Greater Transparency in Monetary Policy: Impact on Financial Markets," Technical Reports 86, Bank of Canada.
    3. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
    4. Daniel C. Hardy, 1998. "Anticipation and Surprises in Central Bank Interest Rate Policy: The Case of the Bundesbank," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 647-671, December.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Anticipation and Surprises in Central Bank Interest Rate Policy," IMF Working Papers 98/43, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Andrew G Haldane & Vicky Read, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and the yield curve," Bank of England working papers 106, Bank of England.
    7. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Posen, Adam S., 1999. "Does talk matter after all? Inflation targeting and central bank behavior," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/04, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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    Cited by:
    1. Matousek, Roman & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2009. "The bank lending channel and monetary transmission in Central and Eastern European countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 321-334, June.
    2. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2004. "Exchange rate risk and convergence to the Euro," ZEI Working Papers B 25-2004, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
    3. Mariusz Jarmuzek & Lucjan T. Orlowski & Artur Radziwill, 2005. "Monetary Policy Transparency in the Inflation Targeting," Macroeconomics 0502025, EconWPA.
    4. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2008. "Relative inflation-forecast as monetary policy target for convergence to the euro," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1061-1081.
    5. Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2010. "Interest Rate Convergence in Euro-Candidate Countries: Volatility Dynamics of Sovereign Bond Yields," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 46(6), pages 69-85, November.
    6. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2005. "Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp754, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    7. Mariusz Jarmuzek & Lucjan T. Orlowski & Artur Radziwill, 2004. "Monetary Policy Transparency in Inflation Targeting Countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0281, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.

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