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Real and Monetary Convergence within the European Union and Between the European Union and Candidate Countries: A Rolling Cointegration Approach

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  • Josef C. Brada

    ()

  • Ali M. Kutan

    ()

  • Su Zhou

    ()

Abstract

We use rolling cointegration to measure the convergence of base money, M2, the consumer price index and industrial output between two reference countries, Germany and France, and recent EU members and some transition economy candidates. Counties that recently joined the EU exhibit time-varying cointegration with the reference countries over much of the 1980-2000 sample period. Cointegration for the transition economies was comparable for M2 and prices, but less so for monetary policy and industrial output. This suggests that a peg to the Euro upon accession is feasible for the East European candidates, but the benefits of joining the Euro zone are as yet limited.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number 458.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2002-458

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Keywords: European Union; convergence; currency areas; enlargement; cointegration; policy coordination;

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References

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  1. Brada, Josef C. & Ktan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," ZEI Working Papers B 07-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  2. Stanislava Janáčková & Josef C. Brada & Liana Payson, 2000. "Price Convergence and the Readiness of the Czech Economy for Accession to the European Union," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 38(4), pages 73-91, August.
  3. Anthony J. Richards & Gunnar Tersman, 1995. "Growth, Nontradables, and Price Convergence in the Baltics," IMF Working Papers 95/45, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  6. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
  7. Michele Fratianni & Juergen Hagen, 1990. "German dominance in the EMS," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 67-87, February.
  8. Kirchgassner, Gebhard & Wolters, Jurgen, 1993. "Does the DM Dominate the Euro Market? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 773-78, November.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  10. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks Between the Euro Area and the CEECs," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 77, Royal Economic Society.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  12. Kocenda, Evzen, 2001. "Macroeconomic Convergence in Transition Countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-23, March.
  13. Rangvid, Jesper & Sørensen, Carsten, 2000. "Convergence in the ERM and declining numbers of common stochastic trends," Working Papers 2000-8, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
  14. van Giersbergen, Noud P A, 1996. "Bootstrapping the Trace Statistic in VAR Models: Monte Carlo Results and Applications," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 391-408, May.
  15. Estrin, Saul & Urga, Giovanni & Lazarova, Stepana, 2001. "Testing for Ongoing Convergence in Transition Economies, 1970 to 1998," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 677-691, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Kleimeier, Stefanie & Sander, Harald, 2006. "Regional versus global integration of euro-zone retail banking markets: Understanding the recent evidence from price-based integration measures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 353-368, July.
  2. Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2009. "A Dynamic Approach to Interest Rate Convergence in Selected Euro-candidate Countries," IWH Discussion Papers 10, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Kleimeier,Stefanie & Sander,Harald, 2004. "Interest Rate Pass-through in an Enlarged Europe: The Role of Banking Market Structure for Monetary Policy Transmission in Transition Countries," Research Memorandum 045, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  4. A M Spiru, 2007. "Inflation convergence in the new EU member states," Working Papers 590260, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  5. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2004. "Are European business cycles close enough to be just one?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 16, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Alina M. Spiru, 2008. "Inflation Convergence In Central And Eastern European Economies," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 3(4), pages 14-34, Winter.
  7. Alina M. Spiru, 2008. "Inflation Convergence In Central And Eastern European Economies," Journal of Information Systems & Operations Management, Romanian-American University, vol. 2(1), pages 289-316, July.
  8. Gabrisch, Hurbert & Orlowski, Lucjan, 2009. "Interest Rate Convergence in the Euro-Candidate Countries: Volatility Dynamics of Sovereign Bond Yields," Working Papers 2009001, Sacred Heart University, John F. Welch College of Business.
  9. Kozmenko, Serhiy & Savchenko, Taras & Kazarinov, Dmytro, 2012. "Assessment of financial convergence of Ukraine with the CIS countries and the European Union," MPRA Paper 50782, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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