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Long-Run Causality, with an Application to International Links Between Long-Term Interest Rates

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  • Bruneau, C.
  • Jondeau, E.

Abstract

In this paper we give a precise definition of long-run causality in a multivariate non-stationary, possibly cointegrated, framework. A variable is said to be causal for another in the long-run if knwoledge of the past of the former improves long-run predictions of the latter. In a VAR framework, we show that long-run non-causality can be easily tested with a Wald statistics, conditionally on the cointegration rank. The methodology is used to study long-run causal links between US, German, and French long-term interest rates from January 1990 to June 1997.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 53.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:53

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Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
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Keywords: Cointegration ; Forecasts ; Interest Rate;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Majid Al-Sadoon, 2013. "Geometric and Long Run Aspects of Granger Causality," Working Papers 682, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  2. Paruolo Paolo, 2004. "The likelihood ratio test for the rank of a cointegration submatrix," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf04024, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
  3. Oxley, Les & Reale, Marco & Wilson, Granville Tunnicliffe, 2009. "Constructing structural VAR models with conditional independence graphs," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2910-2916.
  4. Paesani, Paolo & Strauch, Rolf & Kremer, Manfred, 2006. "Public debt and long-term interest rates: the case of Germany, Italy and the USA," Working Paper Series 0656, European Central Bank.
  5. van Tilburg, Aad & Kuiper, W. Erno & Swinkels, Rob, 2006. "Market Performance of Potato Auctions in Bhutan," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25520, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  6. Kari Heimonen, 2002. "Substituting a Substitute Currency – The Case of Estonia," International Finance 0209003, EconWPA.
  7. Bates, Samuel & Vaugirard, Victor, 2009. "Monetary Transmission Channels around the Subprime Crisis : The US Experience," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/1483, Paris Dauphine University.
  8. Al-Sadoon, M.M., 2009. "Causality Along Subspaces: Theory," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0919, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Jansen, Pieter W., 2006. "Did capital market convergence lower the effectiveness of the interest rate as a monetary policy tool?," Serie Research Memoranda 0010, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  10. Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2010. "Speed of adjustment in cointegrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 130-141, September.
  11. Yiannis Kamarianakis & Vagelis Kaslis, 2005. "Geographical competition-complementarity relationships between Greek regional economies," ERSA conference papers ersa05p552, European Regional Science Association.
  12. Heimonen, Kari, 2001. "Substituting a Substitute Currency – The Case of Estonia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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