Constructing Structural VAR Models with Conditional Independence Graphs
AbstractIn this paper graphical modelling is used to select a sparse structure for a multivariate time series model of New Zealand interest rates. In particular, we consider a recursive structural vector autoregressions that can subsequently be described parsimoniously by a directed acyclic graph, which could be given a causal interpretation. A comparison between competing models is then made by considering likelihood and economic theory.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 08/19.
Length: 12 pages
Date of creation: 28 Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand
Phone: 64 3 369 3123 (Administrator)
Fax: 64 3 364 2635
Web page: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz
More information through EDIRC
Graphical models; directed acyclic graphs; term structure; causality.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-12-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2008-12-07 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2008-12-07 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-MAC-2008-12-07 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Melino, Angelo, 1988.
" The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Evidence and Theory,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(4), pages 335-66.
- Angelo Melino, 1986. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Evidence and Theory," NBER Working Papers 1828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998.
"Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June.
- Fabio C. Bagliano & Carlo A. Favero, . "Measuring Monetary Policy with VAR Models: an Evaluation," Working Papers 132, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Bagliano, Fabio-Cesare & Favero, Carlo A, 1997. "Measuring Monetary Policy with VAR Models: An Evaluation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Drakos, Konstantinos, 2003. "The term structure of deviations from the interest parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 57-67, February.
- Steffen L. Lauritzen & Thomas S. Richardson, 2002. "Chain graph models and their causal interpretations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(3), pages 321-348.
- M. Camarero & J. Ordonez & C. R. Tamarit, 2002. "Monetary transmission in Spain: a structural cointegrated VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(17), pages 2201-2212.
- Bruneau, Catherine & Jondeau, Eric, 1999.
" Long-Run Causality, with an Application to International Links between Long-Term Interest Rates,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(4), pages 545-68, November.
- Bruneau, C. & Jondeau, E., 1998. "Long-Run Causality, with an Application to International Links Between Long-Term Interest Rates," Working papers 53, Banque de France.
- C. Bruneau & E. Jondeau, 1997. "Long-run causality, with an application to international links between long-term interest rates," THEMA Working Papers 97-26, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Tom Engsted & Ken Nyholm, 2000. "Regime shifts in the Danish term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 1-13.
- Saghaian, Sayed H. & Hasan, Mohamad F. & Reed, Michael R., 2002. "Overshooting Of Agricultural Prices In Four Asian Economies," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(01), April.
- Bessler, David A. & Fuller, Stephen W., 2000. "Railroad wheat transportation markets in the central plains: modeling with error correction and directed graphs," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 21-39, March.
- David Archer & Andy Brookes & Michael Reddell, 1999. "A cash rate system for implementing monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, March.
- Fragetta, Matteo, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Identification in SVAR Models: A Data Oriented Perspective," MPRA Paper 20616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Matteo Fragetta & Giovanni Melina, 2011.
"Identification of Monetary Policy in SVAR Models: A Data-Oriented Perspective,"
School of Economics Discussion Papers
0811, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Matteo Fragetta & Giovanni Melina, 2013. "Identification of monetary policy in SVAR models: a data-oriented perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 831-844, October.
- Matteo Fragetta & Giovanni Melina, 2010. "The Effects of Fiscal Shocks in SVAR Models: A Graphical Modelling Approach," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1006, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Albert Yee).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.