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U.S.-European Interest Rate Linkage: A Time Series Analysis for West Germany, Switzerland, and the United States

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  • Kirchgassner, Gebhard
  • Wolters, Jurgen

Abstract

The authors investigate whether there was an international linkage of interest rates between the United States, West Germany, and Switzerland during the period of flexible exchange rates, 1974-84. Euro-market rates and bond-market rates are considered during the two subperiods of falling and increasing U.S. Dollar/DM exchange rates, 1974 to 1978 and 1979 to 1984. Spectral analysis and Granger causality tests are applied and trivariate autoregressive models are estimated. It is shown that a strong linkage exists during the second period, but during the first subperiod there was no, or only a weakly-pronounced, linkage. Copyright 1987 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirchgassner, Gebhard & Wolters, Jurgen, 1987. "U.S.-European Interest Rate Linkage: A Time Series Analysis for West Germany, Switzerland, and the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 675-684, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:69:y:1987:i:4:p:675-84
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerd Hansen, 1996. "The domestic term structure and international interest rate linkages: A cointegration analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 132(4), pages 675-689, December.
    2. Noor Azryani Auzairy & Chee Yong Thing, 2016. "Lending Interest Rates’ Relationships of Malaysia and Other Countries," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 3(12), pages 127-137, JUNE.
    3. Jian Yang, 2005. "Government bond market linkages: evidence from Europe," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 599-610.
    4. Selover, David D. & Round, David K., 1996. "Business cycle transmission and interdependence between Japan and Australia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 569-602.
    5. Catherine Bruneau & Eric Jondeau, 1999. "Long‐run Causality, with an Application to International Links Between Long‐term Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(4), pages 545-568, November.
    6. Bremnes, Helge & Gjerde, Oystein & Soettem, Frode, 2001. " Linkages among Interest Rates in the United States, Germany and Norway," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(1), pages 127-145, March.
    7. Francis In & Sangbae Kim, 2012. "An Introduction to Wavelet Theory in Finance:A Wavelet Multiscale Approach," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8431, January.
    8. Noor Azryani Auzairy & Chee Yong Thing, 2016. "Lending Interest Rates’ Relationships of Malaysia and Other Countries," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(3), pages 127-137, JUNE.
    9. Bremnes, Helge & Gjerde, Oystein & Saettem, Frode, 1997. "A multivariate cointegration analysis of interest rates in the Eurocurrency market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 767-778, September.
    10. Fujen Daniel Hsiao & Yan Hu, 2014. "International Evidence of Spillover Effects of Deposit Rates: A Multivariate Garch Model," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(1), pages 31-44.
    11. Kremer, Manfred, 1999. "Die Kapitalmarktzinsen in Deutschland und den USA: Wie eng ist der Zinsverbund? Eine Anwendung der multivariaten Kointegrationsanalyse," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1999,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Yang, Jian, 2005. "International bond market linkages: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 39-54, January.
    13. Clemens J. M. Kool & John A. Tatom, 1988. "International linkages in the term structure of interest rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 30-43.
    14. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Addo, Emmanuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2021. "Re-examination of international bond market dependence: Evidence from a pair copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias, 2014. "Testing for a break in the persistence in yield spreads of EMU government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 109-118.

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