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Long-run causality, with an application to international links between long-term interest rates

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  • C. Bruneau
  • E. Jondeau

Abstract

In this paper we give a precise definition of long-run causality in a multivariate non-stationary, possibly cointegrated, framework. A variable is said to be causal for another in the long-run if knowledge of the past of the former improves long-run predictions of the latter. In a VAR framework, we show that long-run non-causality can be easily tested with a Wald statistics, conditionally on the cointegration rank. The methodology is used to study long-run causal links between US, German, and French long-term interest rates from January 1990 to June 1997. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise in its series THEMA Working Papers with number 97-26.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:97-26

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Al-Sadoon, M.M., 2009. "Causality Along Subspaces: Theory," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0919, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Paesani, Paolo & Strauch, Rolf & Kremer, Manfred, 2006. "Public debt and long-term interest rates: the case of Germany, Italy and the USA," Working Paper Series 0656, European Central Bank.
  3. Majid Al-Sadoon, 2013. "Geometric and Long Run Aspects of Granger Causality," Working Papers 682, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  4. Paruolo Paolo, 2004. "The likelihood ratio test for the rank of a cointegration submatrix," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf04024, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
  5. Jansen, Pieter W., 2006. "Did capital market convergence lower the effectiveness of the interest rate as a monetary policy tool?," Serie Research Memoranda 0010, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  6. Yiannis Kamarianakis & Vagelis Kaslis, 2005. "Geographical competition-complementarity relationships between Greek regional economies," ERSA conference papers ersa05p552, European Regional Science Association.
  7. Heimonen, Kari, 2001. "Substituting a Substitute Currency – The Case of Estonia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  8. van Tilburg, Aad & Kuiper, W. Erno & Swinkels, Rob, 2006. "Market Performance of Potato Auctions in Bhutan," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25520, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  9. Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2010. "Speed of adjustment in cointegrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 130-141, September.
  10. Les Oxley & Marco Reale & Granville Tunnicliffe Wilson, 2008. "Constructing Structural VAR Models with Conditional Independence Graphs," Working Papers in Economics 08/19, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  11. Bates, Samuel & Vaugirard, Victor, 2009. "Monetary Transmission Channels around the Subprime Crisis : The US Experience," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/1483, Paris Dauphine University.
  12. Kari Heimonen, 2002. "Substituting a Substitute Currency – The Case of Estonia," International Finance 0209003, EconWPA.

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