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Similarity of Supply and Demand Shocks Between the Euro Area and the CEECs

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Author Info
Fidrmuc, Jarko (Osterreichische Nationalbank)
Iikka Korhonen

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Abstract

We assess the correlation of supply and demand shocks between the countries of the euro area and the accession countries in the 1990s. Shocks are recovered from estimated structural VAR models of output growth and inflation. We find that some accession countries have a quite high correlation of the underlying shocks with the euro area. However, even for many advanced accession countries, the shocks remain significantly more idiosyncratic. Continuing integration within the EU is likely to align the business cycles of these countries similarly to the sync

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Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 with number 77.

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Date of creation: 04 Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:77

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Web page: http://www.res.org.uk/society/annualconf.asp
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Related research
Keywords: optimum currency area; EU enlargement; structural VAR;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-231, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "The Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Breakup of Czechoslovakia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 753-781, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fidrmuc, Jan & Horvath, Julius & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 1999. "Stability of Monetary Unions: Lessons from the Break-up of Czechoslovakia," Transition Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2001. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria, Intraindustry Trade, and EMU Enlargement," LICOS Discussion Papers 10601, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, K.U.Leuven. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. George Kopits, 1999. "Implications of EMU for Exchange Rate Policy in Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 99/9, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Ville Kaitila, 2002. "Accession Countries’ Comparative Advantage in the Internal," International Trade 0209001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Iikka Korhonen, 2002. "Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries," Macroeconomics 0209006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. McKinnon, Ronald, 2000. "Mundell, the Euro, and the World Dollar Standard," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 311-324, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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