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Analysis of Shocks Affecting Europe: EMU and some Central and Eastern Acceding Countries

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  • Nabil Ben Arfa

    ()
    (University of Nice - Sophia Antipolis; Faculty of Law, Political Science, Economic and Management; C.E.M.A.F.I; Macroeconomics and International Finance Center)

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    Abstract

    This paper deals with the synchronization of business cycles and economic shocks between the euro area and acceding countries. We therefore extract the business cycle component of output by using Hodrick-Prescott filter. Supply and demand shocks are recovered from estimated structural VAR models of output growth and inflation using long run restriction (Blanchard and Quah). We then check the (A) symmetry of these shocks by calculating the correlation between euro area shocks and those of the different acceding countries. We find that several acceding countries have a quite high correlation of demand shocks with the euro area however supply shocks are asymmetric; the correlation between euro area and central and east European countries (CEECs) is negative. We therefore conclude that joining the European Monetary Union is not yet possible: central and east European countries have to make structural changes to join the European Monetary Union.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia in its journal Panoeconomicus.

    Volume (Year): 56 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 21-38

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    Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:56:y:2009:i:1:p:21-38

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    Web page: http://www.panoeconomicus.rs/

    Related research

    Keywords: Central and East European countries; Euro area; SVAR models; Hodrick-Prescott filter; Symmetric-asymmetric shocks;

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations: how important are nominal shocks?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    2. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2003. "The euro goes East. Implications of the 2000-2002 economic slowdown for synchronisation of business cycles between the euro area and CEEs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    3. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2001. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the Euro area and the CEECs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(1), pages 177-196, March.
    5. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Characterising the Business Cycle for Accession Countries," Working Papers 261, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    6. Raul Ramos & Jordi Suriach, 2004. "Shocking Aspects of European Enlargement," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 42(5), pages 36-57, September.
    7. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2006. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Working Papers 0604, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    8. Michael Funke, 2000. "Macroeconomic Shocks in Euroland vs. the UK: Supply, Demand, or Nominal?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 37, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    9. Funke, Michael, 1997. "How important are demand and supply shocks in explaining German business cycles?: New evidence on an old debate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-37, January.
    10. Horvath, Julius & Ratfai, Attila, 2004. "Supply and demand shocks in accession countries to the Economic and Monetary Union," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 202-211, June.
    11. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1999. "An Optimal Currency Area Perspective of the EU Enlargement to the CEECs," CEPR Discussion Papers 2119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. George S. Tavlas, 1993. "The ‘New’ Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 663-685, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. K. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2012. "Sources Of Exchange Rate Volatility In The European Transition Economies. Effects Of Economic Crisis Revealed," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 7(3(21)/ Fa), pages 270-282.
    2. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2010. "Sources of exchange rate dynamics in the European transition economies," MPRA Paper 25771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices In The Central European Countries," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(3(9)_Fall).

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