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Trade integration and synchronization of shocks

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  • Ian Babetskii

Abstract

According to the >European Commission (1990), closer integration leads to less frequent asymmetric shocks and to more synchronized business cycles between countries. However, for Krugman (1993) closer integration implies higher specialization and, thus, higher risks of idiosyncratic shocks. Drawing on the evidence from a group of transition countries, this paper tries to determine whose argument is supported by the data. This is done by confronting estimated time-varying coefficients of supply and demand shock asymmetry with indicators of trade intensity and exchange rates. We find that (i) an increase in trade intensity leads to higher symmetry of demand shocks: the effect of integration on supply shock asymmetry varies from country to country; and (ii) a decrease in exchange rate volatility has a positive effect on demand shock convergence. The results confirm 'The European Commission view' and also the argument by Kenen (2001) according to which the impact of trade integration on shock asymmetry depends on the type of shock. Copyright (c) The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2005.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in its journal The Economics of Transition.

Volume (Year): 13 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (01)
Pages: 105-138

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Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:13:y:2005:i:1:p:105-138

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Cited by:
  1. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1302, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  2. Viviana Fernandez & Ali M. Kutan, 2005. "Do Regional Integration Agreements Increase Business-Cycle Convergence? Evidence From APEC and NAFTA," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp765, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  3. Enrico Marelli, 2007. "Specialisation and Convergence in European Regions," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 4(2), pages 149-178, September.
  4. Jan Babecky & Oxana Babetskaia-Kukharchuk & Kamil Galuscak & Dana Hajkova & Jaroslav Hermanek & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kral & Filip Novot, 2008. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2008," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as08 edited by Dana Hajkova.
  5. Tapsoba Jules-Armand, 2007. "Bilateral Trade and Business Cycles Synchronization: African Monetary Integration Perspective," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(25), pages 1-15.
  6. Fernandez, Viviana, 2006. "Does domestic cooperation lead to business-cycle convergence and financial linkages?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 369-396, July.
  7. Roman Horvath, 2005. "Exchange Rate Variability, Pressures and Optimum Currency Area Criteria: Lessons for the Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers 2005/08, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  8. Sampawende Jules Tapsoba, 2011. "Union Monétaire en Afrique de l'Ouest: Quelles Réponses à l'Hétérogénéité des Chocs ?," Working Papers halshs-00554309, HAL.
  9. Marcello Signorelli & Enrico Marelli, 2007. "Institutional change, regional features and aggregate performance in eight EU’s transition countries," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 37/2007, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia, Finanza e Statistica.
  10. Zuzana Brixiova & Margaret H. Morgan & Andreas Wörgötter, 2010. "On The Road to Euro: How Synchronized Is Estonia with the Euro zone?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 7(1), pages 203-227, June.
  11. Michael J. Artis & Jarko Fidrmuc & Johann Scharler, 2008. "The transmission of business cycles," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(3), pages 559-582, 07.
  12. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:25:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Jan Fidrmuc & Jarko Fidrmuc & Shuo Huang, 2013. "Whither China? Reform and Economic Integration among Chinese Regions," CESifo Working Paper Series 4220, CESifo Group Munich.
  14. Roman Horváth, 2005. "Exchange Rate Variability, Pressures and Optimum Currency Area Criteria: Implications for the Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers IES 78, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2005.
  15. Maurel, Mathilde, 2004. "Current account constraint as a barrier to international trade: the evidence from the European enlargement process?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 301-317, September.
  16. Triandafil, Cristina Maria, 2011. "The Analysis Of The Convergence Criteria. Empirical Perspective In The Context Of The Sustainable Character Highlight," Working Papers of National Institute of Economic Research 111205, National Institute of Economic Research.
  17. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  18. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
  19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan, 2008. "Are devaluations contractionary in emerging economies of Eastern Europe?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 61-74, March.

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