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Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia

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Author Info
Hallerberg, Mark
Wolff, Guntram B.

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Abstract

We investigate the effect of fiscal institutions such as the strength of the finance minister in the budget process and deficits on interest spreads contained in bond yields of the countries now belonging to the Eurozone. Deficits significantly increase risk premia measured by relative swap spreads. The effect of deficits is significantly lower under EMU. This effect partly results from neglecting the role of fiscal institutions. After controlling for institutional changes, fiscal policy remains a significant determinant of risk premia. We find that better institutions are connected with lower risk premia. Furthermore deficits and surpluses matter less for risk premia in countries with better institutions. This reflects the market perception, that better institutions will reduce fiscal dificulties and make the monitoring of annual developments less important. The results are robust to controlling for country fixed effects and different estimation methodologies. --

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2006,35.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:5099

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Related research
Keywords: Budget institutions; fiscal rules; sovereign risk premia; EMU; fiscal policy; government bond yields;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eichengreen, Barry & Steiner, Katharina, 2008. "Is Poland at Risk of a Boom-and-Bust Cycle in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7027, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H. & Wolff, Guntram B., 2007. "Moral hazard and bail-out in fiscal federations: evidence for the German Länder," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Wolff, Guntram B. & Schulz, Alexander, 2008. "Sovereign bond market integration: the euro, trading platforms and globalization," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  4. Stähler, Nikolai, 2007. "Taxing deficits to restrain government spending and foster capital accumulation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  5. Barry Eichengreen, 2007. "The Breakup of the Euro Area," NBER Working Papers 13393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. David Hauner & Jirí Jonáš & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2007. "Policy Credibility and Sovereign Credit--The Case of New EU Member States," IMF Working Papers 07/1, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Katia Rocha & Ajax Moreira, 2009. "O Impacto da Política Fiscal nos Spreads Soberanos: A Austeridade Fiscal e a Qualidade do Ajuste," Discussion Papers 1422, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Xavier Debrun & Natan P. Epstein & Steven A. Symansky, 2008. "A New Fiscal Rule: Should Israel go Swiss?," IMF Working Papers 08/87, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Amine Mati & Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 08/259, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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