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Fiscal institutions, fiscal policy and sovereign risk premia

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  • Hallerberg, Mark
  • Wolff, Guntram B.

Abstract

We investigate the effect of fiscal institutions such as the strength of the finance minister in the budget process and deficits on interest spreads contained in bond yields of the countries now belonging to the Eurozone. Deficits significantly increase risk premia measured by relative swap spreads. The effect of deficits is significantly lower under EMU. This effect partly results from neglecting the role of fiscal institutions. After controlling for institutional changes, fiscal policy remains a significant determinant of risk premia. We find that better institutions are connected with lower risk premia. Furthermore deficits and surpluses matter less for risk premia in countries with better institutions. This reflects the market perception, that better institutions will reduce fiscal dificulties and make the monitoring of annual developments less important. The results are robust to controlling for country fixed effects and different estimation methodologies. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2006,35.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:5099

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Keywords: Budget institutions; fiscal rules; sovereign risk premia; EMU; fiscal policy; government bond yields;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sanjeev Gupta & Amine Mati & Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 08/259, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Kirsten H. Heppke-Falk & Guntram B. Wolff, 2008. "Moral Hazard and Bail-Out in Fiscal Federations: Evidence for the German Länder," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 425-446, 08.
  3. Gabrisch, Hurbert & Orlowski, Lucjan & Pusch, Toralf, 2012. "Sovereign Default Risk in the Euro-Periphery and the Euro-Candidate Countries," Working Papers 2012002, Sacred Heart University, John F. Welch College of Business.
  4. Rocha, Katia & Moreira, Ajax, 2010. "The role of domestic fundamentals on the economic vulnerability of emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 173-182, June.
  5. Guntram B. Wolff & Alexander Schulz, 2008. "Sovereign bond market integration: the euro, trading platforms and globalisation," European Economy - Economic Papers 332, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  6. Barry Eichengreen & Katharina Steiner, 2008. "Is Poland at Risk of a Boom-and-Bust Cycle in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption?," NBER Working Papers 14438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Alexander Schulz & Guntram B. Wolff, 2009. "The German Sub-national Government Bond Market: Structure, Determinants of Yield Spreads and Berlin's Forgone Bail-out," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 229(1), pages 61-83, February.
  8. Katia Rocha & Ajax Moreira, 2009. "O Impacto da Política Fiscal nos Spreads Soberanos: A Austeridade Fiscal e a Qualidade do Ajuste," Discussion Papers 1422, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  9. Stähler, Nikolai, 2007. "Taxing deficits to restrain government spending and foster capital accumulation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. Steven A. Symansky & Xavier Debrun & Natan P. Epstein, 2008. "A New Fiscal Rule," IMF Working Papers 08/87, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Manmohan S. Kumar & Jirí Jonáš & David Hauner, 2007. "Policy Credibility and Sovereign Credit," IMF Working Papers 07/1, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Attinasi, Maria-Grazia & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Nickel, Christiane, 2009. "What explains the surge in euro area sovereign spreads during the financial crisis of 2007-09?," Working Paper Series 1131, European Central Bank.
  13. Barry Eichengreen, 2010. "The Breakup of the Euro Area," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 11-51 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Gunther Tichy, 2012. "Zum Versagen der Marktdisziplinierung in der Finanzkrise," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13, pages 58-80, 05.
  15. Ceyhun Elgin & Burak R. Uras, 2012. "Public Debt, Sovereign Default Risk and Shadow Economy," Working Papers 2012/10, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.

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