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Macroeconomic Sources of Foreign Exchange Risk in New EU Members

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  • Tigran Poghosyan
  • Evzen Kocenda

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Abstract

We address the issue of foreign exchange risk and its macroeconomic determinants in several new EU members. The joint distribution of excess returns in the foreign exchange market and the observable macroeconomic factors is modeled using the stochastic discount factor (SDF) approach and a multivariate GARCH-in-mean model. We find that in post-transition economies real factors play a small role in determining foreign exchange risk, while nominal and monetary factors have a significant impact. Therefore, to contribute to the further stability of their domestic currencies, the central banks in the new EU member countries should continue stabilization policies aimed at achieving nominal convergence with the core EU members, as nominal factors play a crucial role in explaining the variability of the risk premium.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp898.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2007-898

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Keywords: foreign exchange risk; time-varying risk premium; stochastic discount factor; multivariate GARCH-in-mean; post-transition and emerging markets;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2012. "Financial crisis and extreme market risks: Evidence from Europe," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 120-130.
  2. Égert, Balázs & Kočenda, Evžen, 2014. "The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 73-88.
  3. Evzen Kocenda & Vit Bubak & Filip Zikes, 2011. "Volatility Transmission in Emerging European Foreign Exchange Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1020, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Evžen Kocenda & Mathilde Maurel & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Short-Term and Long-Term Growth Effects of Exchange Rate Adjustment," CESifo Working Paper Series 4018, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Ligon, James A. & Liu, Hao-Chen, 2013. "The relation of trade size and price contribution in a traditional foreign exchange brokered market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1024-1045.
  6. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya, 2014. "Demand and supply drivers of foreign currency loans in CEECs: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 26-42.
  7. Nagayasu, Jun, 2012. "The Forward Premium Puzzle And Risk Premiums," MPRA Paper 42472, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Evžen Kočenda & Mathilde Maurel & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Short- and long-term growth effects of exchange rate adjustment," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00748599, HAL.
  9. Evžen Koèenda & Tigran Poghosyan, 2010. "Exchange Rate Risk in Central European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 22-39, February.
  10. Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T Orlowski, 2011. "Extreme Risks in Financial Markets and Monetary Policies of the Euro-Candidates," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(4), pages 511-534, December.
  11. Richard Frensch & Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2012. "Specialization, gravity, and European trade in final goods," Working Papers 320, Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies).
  12. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2011. "Foreign exchange risk pricing and equity market segmentation in Africa," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2295-2310, September.
  13. Robert Kelm, 2010. "The Exchange Rate and Two Price Inflations in Poland in the Period 1999-2009. Do Globalization and Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(4), pages 315-349, September.
  14. Hubert Gabrisch & Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2010. "Interest Rate Convergence in Euro-Candidate Countries: Volatility Dynamics of Sovereign Bond Yields," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 46(6), pages 69-85, November.
  15. Herbert S. Buscher & Hubert Gabrisch, 2011. "What Might Central Banks Lose or Gain in Case of Euro Adoption – A GARCH-Analysis of Money Market Rates for Sweden, Denmark and the UK," IWH Discussion Papers 9, Halle Institute for Economic Research.

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