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Macroeconomic Sources of FOREX Risk

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  • Smith, Peter N
  • Wickens, Michael R

Abstract

This Paper is an exploration into the links between macroeconomics and finance as they affect the FOREX risk premium. SDF theory is used in which the factors are observable macroeconomic variables. Three SDF theories are compared: a benchmark model based on traditional tests of FOREX efficiency; consumption-based CAPM; and the monetary model of the exchange rate. The theory takes account of both domestic and foreign investors. The joint distribution of the excess return to FOREX and the macro factors satisfies the no-arbitrage assumption, and is a suitably restricted version of multivariate GARCH-in-mean. Monthly data for the sterling-dollar exchange rate 1975-97 are used. The results suggest that the FOREX risk premium is best modelled by CAPM based and the factors that determine next period’s exchange rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3148.

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Date of creation: Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3148

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Keywords: FOREX; GARCH; market efficiency; risk premium; stochastic discount factors;

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Cited by:
  1. Alexis Derviz & Narcisa Kadlcáková, 2005. "Business cycle, credit risk and economic capital determination by commercial banks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 299-327 Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Charles Goodhart & Lavan Mahadeva & John Spicer, 2003. "Monetary policy's effects during the financial crises in Brazil and Korea," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 55-79.
  3. Groen, Jan J.J. & Balakrishnan, Ravi, 2006. "Asset price based estimates of sterling exchange rate risk premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 71-92, February.
  4. Peter N Smith & S Sorensen & M R Wickens, 2005. "The asymmetric effect of the business cycle on the relation between stock market returns and their volatility," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 47, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  5. Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England.
  6. Flavin, T. J. & Wickens, M. R., 2003. "Macroeconomic influences on optimal asset allocation," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 207-231.
  7. Thomas J. Flavin & Michael R. Wickens, 2001. "A Risk Management Approach to Optimal Asset Allocation," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1080301, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  8. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premia and Macroeconomic Volatilities," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 140, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  9. Peter N Smith & Steffen Sorensen & Mike Wickens, 2007. "The Asymmetric Effect of the Business Cycle on the Equity Premium (This is an extensively revised version of earlier paper No. 06/04)," Discussion Papers 07/11, Department of Economics, University of York.
  10. Tigran Poghosyan & Evzen Kocenda, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Risk Premium Determinants: Case of Armenia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp811, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  11. Jan Brùha & Alexis Derviz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Factors and the Balanced Value of the Czech Koruna/Euro Exchange Rate (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(7-8), pages 318-343, July.
  12. Kocenda, Evzen & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2009. "Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2164-2173, November.

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