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Macroeconomic Sources of FOREX Risk Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Smith, Peter N
Wickens, Michael R
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This Paper is an exploration into the links between macroeconomics and finance as they affect the FOREX risk premium. SDF theory is used in which the factors are observable macroeconomic variables. Three SDF theories are compared: a benchmark model based on traditional tests of FOREX efficiency; consumption-based CAPM; and the monetary model of the exchange rate. The theory takes account of both domestic and foreign investors. The joint distribution of the excess return to FOREX and the macro factors satisfies the no-arbitrage assumption, and is a suitably restricted version of multivariate GARCH-in-mean. Monthly data for the sterling-dollar exchange rate 1975-97 are used. The results suggest that the FOREX risk premium is best modelled by CAPM based and the factors that determine next period’s exchange rate.
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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number
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Date of creation: Jan 2002Date of revision:
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Keywords: FOREX ; GARCH ; market efficiency ; risk premium ; stochastic discount factors ; Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
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